On January 12, 2026, the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected upscale wheat supplies, lowering prices a day after.
The WASDE raised international wheat production by 4.3 million tonnes annually in 2025-26, to 1.102 billion tonnes.
Also up is global consumption of the grain by 900,000 tonnes year-on-year (y-o-y), to 823.9 million tonnes.
International exports of the cereal will meanwhile increase by 1.1 million tonnes, to 219.8 million tonnes.
The West, where winter wheat is still in the ground after sowing last fall, absorbed the glut news in bearish terms.
Europe’s wheat at Euronext in Paris fell daily by 1.3% to €189.25 ($220.40) a tonne, doubling its fall after December 2025’s WASDE.
Chicago’s soft red wheat for March delivery also slipped 1.2% to $187.9 a tonne, reprising its 4.8% slump after December 2025’s WASDE.
Hard red winter grain for March delivery in Kansas City also shed 0.7% day-on-day, to $193.2 a tonne.
Such bearish markets reflect glut in major production centers such as Argentina, which WASDE expects to produce a record 27.5 million tonnes (2025-26).
Similarly placed is Russia, which the USDA projects to produce 89.5 million tonnes or 2 million tonnes above 2024-25’s output.
Neutral Market Stateside
A little different situation pertains to winter wheat in the United States, whose acreage and export forecasts remain put while production is up.
Despite expectations of sharp acreage depreciation, the USDA only lowered 2025-26 winter acreage by 1% from 2024-25, to 32.99 million acres.
The same thing accrues to exports, which the WASDE retains y-o-y at 900 million bushels.
Ending stocks for the United States in 2026 will be slightly higher by 8% than those of 2025, to 926 million bushels.
Domestic utility will however neutralize the acreage dip by retreating down 20 million bushels, to 100 million bushels.
The general effect is that federal wheat prices at the farm-gate will follow general world trends by drifting down $0.1 annually to $4.9/bushel.
February 10 is the date for the next WASDE, a time when the global wheat situation will be a bit clearer as the year unfolds. The below data section reviews the price aspect from a historical angle.
World Wheat Prices Statistics
International wheat prices rose from rock bottom at $88.55 in October 1999 to highs of $444.15 a tonne in May 2022. The following data by the Federal Reserve, St. Louis gives a graphical historical look:
| Month-and-Year | Price [per tonne] |
| May 2022 | $444.15 [highest on record] |
| October 2016 | $122.55 |
| March 2008 | $483.81 |
| October 1999 | $88.55 [lowest on record] |
| May 1996 | $248.59 |
| January 1990 | $167.91 |
How have wheat prices in the United States fared historically?
Domestic wheat prices in the United States historically recharged from lows of $1.308 a bushel in June 1968 to highs of $11.08 in March 2022. The following data interpretation from Macrotrends gives historical highs and lows in the 1960-2025 period:
| Month-and-Year | Price [per bushel] |
| May 2022 | $11.45 [all-time high] |
| February 2008 | $9.77 |
| August 2000 | $2.04 [lowest since 2000] |
| July 1974 | $5.96 |
| June 1968 | $1.31 [historical low] |