India expects sugar production to rise to 35 million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, fueling industry concerns on exports and prices. 

Out of this October 2025-September 2026 seasonal total, 5 million tonnes will constitute ethanol while 31.5 million tonnes sugar.

The above National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF)’s sugar output projection almost equals 2023’s record 32 million tonnes. 

This hints at a home surplus against a 2025-26 consumption projection by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) of 31 million tonnes.

Exports could help ease some of the glut but any extra shipment sanction must pass through state review. 

India’s central government halfheartedly returned to exports in January 2025 at 1 million tonnes, before raising them to 1.5 million tonnes.

Now the industry wants to increase this dispatch by 1 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes to boost weak domestic sugar rates.

“This will…stabilise the domestic sugar prices,” suggested the NFCSF’s managing director, Prakash Naiknavare. 

According to Naiknavare, the minimum selling price (MSP) has been at 3,100 rupees ($34.50) a quintal (100 kg) since the 2018-19 year. 

The MD is therefore suggesting a rate matching production cost currently at 4,024.49 rupees ($44.79)/quintal in late 2025.

In the 2025 sugar retail rate context, stakeholders argue that the MSP ought to at least reach 41 rupees ($0.46) a kg.

Supply Momentum 

The call finds sugarcane crushing by 424 sugar factories for the period ending November 30, 2025 at 48.6 million tonnes. This was versus some 33.4 million tonnes for a similar period in 2024.

Maharashtra alone in western India produced 4.11 million tonnes of the sweetener in October and November 2025, up 43% annually.

India’s marketing year begins October, which means Maharashtra managed a big fraction of annual production in the first two months.

Production leader Uttar Pradesh also processed 1.4 million tonnes this November, 1.12 million tonnes more than November 2024’s.

Rising factory numbers are also contributing to the surplus, now at 428 versus 376 mills in 2024-25.

It is no wonder then that the FSCAF projects a glut 2025-26 sugar year for the subcontinent. For more on the sugar industry of India, peruse the below stats. 

India Sugar Industry Statistics 

The sugar industry of India is huge in terms of production, consumption, and business (mills e.t.c). In output terms, India is, together with Brazil, the leading sugar-producing nation. But it is a low exporter due to high consumption at 31 million tonnes annually (2025-26 USDA’s projection). This is against a production capacity at 35 million tonnes, per a 2025-26 annual forecast by the USDA. 

For this reason, consumption forces export restrictions. India last exported a substantial 11.1 million tonnes of sugar in the 2021-22 sugar marketing year for the period ending 2025. By the 2022-23 timeline, exports had halved to 6.1 million tonnes while in 2024 there were no sales. 

However, mills for sugar have been changing drastically in number to match reigning domestic demand. By November 30, 2025, there were 428 sugar mills versus 376 in late 2024, per Fortune India. Beforehand in the 2022-23 period, they had numbered 532, versus 305 a year before. Mills average 31.1 million tonnes of sugar per annum. This is in reference to the Indian Sugar Millers Association (ISMA)’s data from October 1, 2022 to April 15, 2023.