The first World Agricultural Supply & Demand (WASDE) report since September dethroned wheat grain market prices and improved corn ones, starting November 14, 2025.
It was a baffling report because the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released it without issuing the shutdown-affected October WASDE for comparison.
In the report, most grains stayed put in supply and consumption but wheat and corn had carryovers going below or above expectations.
The worldwide wheat annual carryover for one upped to 271.43 million tonnes, vis-á-vis September’s 266.1 million tonnes.
Traders had expected a slim increase from September to at least 266.1 million tonnes, which did not happen.
This had a negative trade effect, dethroning federal market prices to less than $5 a bushel on the 14th.
Hence, the average farm-gate rate for wheat in the United States shed US¢10, off the earlier average of $4.90/bushel.
Federal wheat supply however steadied at 1.99 billion bushels, similar to September’s report, but ending stocks upped to 901 million bushels.
Corn Prices Up
Another report’s beneficiary was corn (within the U.S.), which edged up US¢10 a bushel above the reigning average producer’s price.
This was as a result of worldwide corn production down-revising to 281.34 million tonnes, below trade expectations at 282.8 million tonnes.
Upon this downward revision, America’s corn upped its market game to a farm-gate rate of $4 a bushel.
The effect almost exactly reprises that of the January 2025 WASDE, whose push down of corn production had also upped rates.
Despite this, the United States will see extra corn exports in 2025-26, countering increasing imports for the UK,Venezuela and Egypt.
Most corn reserves abroad, especially in China, are currently down apart from those from Mexico, Ukraine and Argentina.
Despite the market changes, wheat’s fortunes could alter in 2025-26 due to uptick production outlook. The 2025-26 worldwide wheat output might rise by 11.7 million tonnes, from favorable production in eastern Europe, the European Union and North America. The stats below in turn put a perspective on the latest WASDE grain supply and market report.
Grain Market WASDE Statistics
Each month, the World Agricultural Supply & Demand (WASDE) report comes out courtesy of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). It is an important document for reviewing worldwide market production, consumption and other facts that determine market prices. Below is data from recent WASDE reports on grains:
Coarse grains (sorghum, barley, millet): the world’s coarse grain beginning stock in the 2022-23 marketing year was at 304.26 metric tonnes, per the October 2024 WASDE. Comparatively in the November 2025 context, the beginning stock was at 1.41 million tonnes.
Wheat: the world’s wheat beginning stocks for 2025-26 meanwhile hit 47.63 million tonnes among top supply countries. The carryover stock meanwhile upped to 271.43 million tonnes, from an earlier September WASDE’s tally of 266.1 million tonnes.
Corn: global corn’s carryover reserve trimmed to 281.34 million tonnes in November 2025’s WASDE, while trade analysts had expected 282.8 million tonnes.
How accurate has WASDE been on actual production in the past?
WASDE’s predictions on production versus actual output has historically enjoyed small to large errors. In the 1992-2017 period, global corn production forecasts, for example, erred from actual output by between 0.02% (almost accurate) and 27.42% (completely inaccurate).