The summer wheat harvest is ongoing across Europe amid bleak production and price outlook for major exporters, Russia and Ukraine.
In Ukraine, low export prices have exacerbated the situation and forced farmers to stockpile for a better day. Hence, shipments were just 1/3rd of their usual progress this time of the year by July 25, 2025.
Weekly Black Sea’s deliveries were fetching a maximum 10,700 hryvnia ($255.84) a tonne before July 30, down by 400 hryvnia ($9.56).
According to the USM Media, feed wheat also lost 200 hryvnia ($4.78) to the tonne, maximizing at 10,400 hryvnia ($249)/tonne.
The current low rates mirror the contract terms that international buyers draw before the harvest starts, but are nevertheless demoralizing.
Ripple Effect Stateside
Although production losses in Ukraine and Russia have had ripple effects in the United States, they haven’t fully rallied prices here, too.
On July 31, the day’s soft red winter wheat for September delivery in Chicago lost US¢1.5, to $5.22 1/4 a bushel.
In the U.S.’ context, the price fall owes to a good winter wheat harvest progress that promises a surplus. Winter wheat reaping was 73% complete by July 20, with a 48% good-to-excellent rating.
In Ukraine, production in 2025 will probably downsize to 51 million tonnes or 4 million tonnes less than in 2024.
Russia off to a Rainy Start
Across the border, Russia is reeling from weather-related harvest delays that have arrested both the export pace and output.
With rains saturating unharvested wheat steppes, the federation is already behind normal export progress while annual production is probably falling by 30%.
It is an about turn from the record 2023 harvest when the country garnered 99+ million tonnes and donated some.
Capping the low outlook is the fact that the European Union (EU) as a whole has already pared down 2025’s production. This leaves the United States as one of the few major wheat exporters with great prospects, per the below statistics.
Statistics on Major Wheat Exporters
Wheat exports make up a major part of the world’s grain economy and trade. Virtually all top 10 leading shippers are temperate region nations, where wheat thrives under cool conditions. One of these is Ukraine, which in 2024 shipped $3.74 billion in wheat value or 7.8% of the world’s total, ranking fifth. Ahead of it was Russia at $4.9 billion or 10.3% share, while in the third place was Australia at $5.6 billion. Russia and Australia notably ranked the 3rd and 5th biggest wheat-producing nations, respectively in 2024. The United States ($6 billon, or 12.5% share) and Canada ($7.6 billion or 15.8% world share) led 2024 exports. The European Union’s top wheat shippers in 2024 included France, Romania, Germany and Poland in the 6th-10th rankings, accordingly.
Which countries are major producers but not shippers of wheat?
China and India are the two largest wheat producers in the world but they do not rank as major exporters. According to the FAOSTAT, China harvested approximately 136.6 million tonnes of wheat in 2023. This is even as India registered about 110.55 million tonnes. By 2024, China was averaging 140 million tonnes while India 114 million tonnes, both annual improvements.
Are there major wheat exporters that also lead world production ?
Russia and the United States, which regularly rank 3rd and 4th in global production also constantly nearly top exports. In 2023, for example, Russia produced around 91.5 million tonnes in the 3rd place. The following year in 2024, it exported 10.3% of the world’s total, in the 4th place. The United States, on the other hand, was 4th in 2024 production but moved to 2nd place in total exports, with a 12.5% share.