New York sugar futures on July 1, 2025 recorded declines in prices on the final delivery date of July’25 contracts from oversupply fears.
Sugar #11 or bulk raw cane sugar in New York lost by -2.09% daily, early on the July 1 deadline.
The same fate overshadowed the much-traded sugar #5 or bulk raw white sugar in London, by -2.43% day-on-day.
By 3.48 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on the 1st, bulk sugar was fetching $0.16 a pound, a 4 1/4-month low.
The rush by traders to meet deadlines stoked oversupply surmises amid ebbing demand for sugar, further pressuring U.S.’ sugar prices.
Sugar # 16 and Oversupply
Oversupply concerns are mainly foreign-related and apply to the relatively expensive sugar #16.
No.16 refers to raw sugar for physical delivery to mainly New York from inside the United States or from duty-free foreign origins.
By July 1, 2025, this type was selling lowly at $34.75 a pound, a -6.71% 52-week drop, per Barchart.
One major source of #16 is Mexico, which currently has an annual production boost of 7% for the 2025-26 season.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cites that Mexico has a “suspension agreement” with the United States. The friendly protocol will therefore allow cross-border sugar exports into the U.S. to stay high at 572,489 tonnes in 2025-26.
Uptick 2025-26 production in Mexico to 5.094 million tonnes might also counterbalance American production, which is down to 13.773 million short tons.
For now, trade outlook hinges upon a 2025-26 global surplus by 4.7% year-on-year, which is bearish on prices. To unravel pricing patterns, the statistics below use a specific review of sugar no.16, pertaining to NY.
New York Sugar No.16 Prices Statistics
Sugar #16 refers to American sugar for physical delivery or duty-free imports via mainly the New York port. It remains perhaps the most price-sensitive sugar contract type. This is because its physical delivery basis determines final consumer pricing of the sweetener. As of June 27, 2025, its price was at $0.3501 a pound while that of raw bulk sugar was around $0.16 a pound.
How has sugar no.16 performed in NY and American markets in the recent past?
According to the Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis, #16 was cheapest between 1990 and 2025 in Q1 2000, at $0.1770 a pound. On the flip side, it reached its intermediate peak in the 1990-2025 period in Q3 2011, at $0.3893 a pound. Then it broke the bank at $0.4298 a pound in Q4 2023, before it slid to $0.3695 in Q1 2025.
What was mid-2025 pricing of sugar #16?
Since Q1 2025, no.16 has continually fallen, to settle at around $0.3475 per pound in early July 2025. Part of the price pressure owes to projections of a 2025-26 global sugar surplus by 4.7% year-on-year, to 189.318 tonnes.