Low rain in Brazil’s coffee belt upswung global pricing by 3.19% day-on-day on June 23, 2025, after record lows.
Arabica for September delivery in New York gained 3.4% day-on-day on the 23rd. This was even as the International Coffee Exchange (ICE)’s robusta deliveries in London surged by 2.91%.
On average, Arabica sold at $3.29 per pound by midday on the 23rd, an increase of 3.19% on a daily basis.
Reports by Somar Meteorologia of Brazil showed no rains in the June 14-21 week, which is bullish for coffee pricing. Upon the news, traders scrambled to buy back stocks they had just sold short to capitalize on the price revamp.
Helping along is the analysis that the current harvest in Brazil, which has for long weighed down on domestic prices, is behind schedule.
According to a Safras & Mercado analysis, the 2025-26 harvest was 35% over by June 11 vis-á-vis the 37% completeness on June 11, 2024.
Arabica areas had made only 26% of the harvest by June 11 from hampering rains while Robusta regions neared the 50% mark.
Harvest-time supplies in Brazil have helped undercut worldwide prices since they last peaked at $3.9 a pound in April 2025.
On May 19, 2025, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) put Brazil’s 2025-26 production at 65 million bags, a 0.5% yearly hike.
This improves on the 2024 harvest when dry weather had forced some contractors to default 90,000 60-kg bags deliveries.
Low supplies in late 2024 steered worldwide Arabica coffee market rates towards $3.35 per pound, the highest since 1977.
2024 Reprise
Mimicking late 2024 trends, Brazil’s Arabica exports in May 2025 were -36% down year-on-year (y-o-y), to 2.8 million bags.
Also stoking the price surge is Vietnam, where dry weather also dipped January-May 2025 Robusta exports by -1.8%, y-o-y.
Since both Brazil and Vietnam are the biggest shippers of coffee worldwide, production woes there always affect global pricing. And as the statistics below reveal, this has been quite apparent in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons.
Brazil’s Weather Effect on Global Coffee Pricing Statistics
Brazil, alongside Vietnam, is a pocketbook example of how weather affects global coffee prices. For instance, after dry conditions hampered Brazil’s 2024 harvest, Arabica prices surged to $4.09 a pound in April 2025. Vietnam, too, handled a dry 2024, whereby coffee production fell by 20% year-on-year. At the time, wholesale Robusta prices in Vietnam itself shot to a November 2024 mean of 110,800 dong ($4.36) a kg.
Below data compares Arabica prices worldwide against the respective harvest timings and weather conditions in Brazil. It interprets data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Markets Insider.
| Date | Arabica [2023/24] | Weather |
| July 2024 | $2.48 a pound | May to September harvest time after dry weather |
| February 2025 | $4.09 a pound | Mildly dry weather |
| April 2025 | $3.92 a pound | Pre-harvest timing |
| June 2025 | $3.29 a pound | Peak harvest time amid dry weather |