Sugar futures dropped to a four-month low on June 23, 2025 by -0.37% day-on-day after crude oil rates crashed. Price pressure also emanated from Brazil’s and India’s 2025-26 surplus projections.
Hence, raw sugar futures touched $0.16 a pound (-0.37% daily drop) on June 23 following a lengthy stint near $0.17.
News of war ceasefire between Iran and Israel on the 23rd ended fears of oil shortage, with a followup decrement in price.
According to Trading Economics, crude sold at $66.2 a barrel on June 23, a 1% daily drop upon the ceasefire news.
This follows a 7% earlier slump following indications that Iran would not be closing the Strait of Hormuz where 1/5th of the global crude transits.
Low oil prices underpin ethanol rates and foster low cane utility, upping cane-to-sugar conversion with negative pricing effect.
2025-26 Surplus
But this does not mean that oil is the only factor for the lukewarm sugar selling rate. For one, output increments in the major production hubs of Brazil and India will likely lead to a sugar surplus in 2026.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on May 22 raised the 2025-26 global sugar surplus by 7.5% annually, to 41.1 million tonnes.
This surplus forecast echoes that by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This is despite the FAO’s projection of 1.1% annual global sugar production contraction to 180.3 million tonnes.
However, the UN body expects a worldwide surplus in the 2025-26 period due to high 2024-25 stocks at 122.3 million tonnes.
With bearish oil currently adding to the surplus pressure, the world’s sugar rates could stay for some time down. To learn how the first three weeks of June 2025 turned out for sugar prices till the crude oil blow, skim the data below.
Statistics on Sugar Rates In June 2025
According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), white sugar pricing worldwide has remained below US¢17 per pound between June 2 and 23, 2025. On June 2, rates were down to US¢17.17 a pound, then crossed the 16-cent mark on the 5th, at US¢16.95.
After rallying a little to US¢17.07 on June 9, they henceforth stayed for good in the 16-cent territory. They however had to wait until June 23 to hit rock bottom at US¢16 a pound following a slump in the crucial crude oil prices. Low oil prices undercut ethanol production, which pressures sugar pricing due the sudden availability of disposable cane.
Below is a conclusive table on the weekly sugar lows and highs between June 2 and 23, courtesy ISO and Markets Insider.
| Week | Sugar price low [US¢/LB] | Sugar price high [US¢/LB] |
| June 2-8 | 16.91 | 17.69 |
| June 9-16 | 16.61 | 17.35 |
| June 17-22 | 16.38 | 16.99 |
| June 23- | 16.00 |