Raw beans of cocoa rebounded March 24, 2025 but are still dragging inside $8,000 per tonne as price-related demand ebbs.
Since the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) announced a long forthcoming annual surplus of 142,000 tonnes in February 2025, trade has turned bearish.
On the 24th however, some contracts in New York and London sharply resurged by over 4% on slowing exports from Ivory Coast.
Intraday or futures that sell within the same day for May 2025 delivery hit $8,079 a tonne in New York, March 24.
Most long-haul contracts for July 2025 to December 2026 deliveries however played it safe in the $7000s, mostly above $7,151 a tonne. This way they reflect the cocoa price underperformance by -30% so far in 2025, year-on-year.
Despite occupying the low $8000s, the recent rebound remarkably overshadows last week’s ending low on March 22 of $6,974 a tonne.
Demand Left Out
The price rally might hurt already low demand further, which has fallen in recent months due to price volatility.
According to chocolate giant Mondelez on February 4, North American demand has especially cut a downward trend due to high pricing.
It was for this reason that Mondelez on February 12 predicted a 50% possible increase in chocolate pricing in the future.
While upping production in West Africa may curb the rise, it might be too late for chocolate processors are finding cocoa alternatives.
Meanwhile, warehouses across U.S.’ ports illustrate falling demand by registering the biggest reserves in four months in March 2025.
All this illustrates the staying price volatility of raw cocoa beans despite the continued cooling of prices in the past five weeks. It might all be pegged to demand and grindings metrics, a point that the statistics below explore.
Raw Cocoa Demand/Grinding Statistics
Although production is the main decider, global cocoa demand depends on the total grindings since millers only grind on orders. These orders in turn come from chocolate makers, whose quantity is driven by the reigning consumer demand. As such, below is a table of grindings in the 2014-2025 decade, courtesy of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
| Market Year | Total Grindings | Annual % Change |
| 2024-25 [estimate] | 4,650,000 | -4.8 |
| 2023-24 | 4,885,000 | -3.4 |
| 2022-23 | 5,058,000 | 1.3 |
| 2021-22 | 4,994,000 | 0.9 |
| 2020-21 | 4,949,000 | 5.6 |
| 2019-20 | 4,685,000 | -1.2 |
| 2018-19 | 4,742,000 | 3.6 |
| 2017-18 | 4,576,000 | 4.2 |
| 2016-17 | 4,391,000 | 6.2 |
| 2015-16 | 4,133,000 | -0.5 |
| 2014-15 | 4,152,000 | -.4.2 |
It is notable from the above that some years such as 2023-24 had low grindings not due to low demand but tight production. In the 2024-25 context, however, it is high prices that have impacted demand. This way they have partially contributed to the estimated -4.5% grinding downturn.