The 2024-25 corn output in Brazil could increase by 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in tandem with impressive grain production.
According to a March 13, 2025 report by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), uptick yields will support this increase.
In a promising market year for local cereals and oilseeds, LSPA pegs corn production at 124.8 million tonnes.
Three Different Positive Estimates
LSPA’s latest estimate slightly improves its January forecast by 0.5%, and reflects a go-easy approach by agencies.
One of these is the government agency Conab, which on March 13 raised production by 5.5% y-o-y, to 122 million tonnes.
In its part, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s rival monthly estimate on March 11 remained unchanged at 126 million tonnes.
The difference in the three agencies’ estimates is nothing new for it has been happening year-on-year, reports Reuters. Besides, the USDA forecast overreaches the market year by one month above that of Conab, underpinning the figures’ variation.
Holding Downward World Production
Be it as it may, Brazil’s improving outlook as the world’s third biggest corn producer might hold falling world’s production.
In its January forecast, the International Grains Council (IGC) downsized the world corn output for 2024-2025 to 1.219 billion tonnes.
This marks 6 million tonnes less than IGC’s earlier estimate, underscoring the big influence of a downsizing American crop. Analysts ware expecting the top producer, the United States, to improve production in 2025, which isn’t the case so far.
Brazil’s improvement partly owes to corn belt expansion and uptick yields. An USDA forecast in August 2024 expects the 2024-25 corn area to reach 22 million hectares, 2.3% above the 2023-24’s.
Corn in Brazil therefore enjoins upward national grain production that could hit 323.8 billion tonnes in 2025, according to LSPA. To know more about the South American country’s place of corn, peruse the statistics below.
Brazil Corn Statistics
Brazil is the world’s third biggest corn producer after the United States and China. At 101.13 million tonnes, as of 2019, the country accounts for 8.8% of the world’s maize (corn) production. Corn is also Brazil’s second most essential crop after soybeans, contributing to both human and animal diet. Virtually all parts of Brazil today grow corn and provide year-round harvests: the main harvest runs January to June while minor harvests seep July through December. The country’s corn belt has meanwhile been expanding in recent years from 21,066,201 hectares (ha) in 2022 to 22,316,240 ha in 2023.
Does Brazil consume much maize?
Milho, the Brazilian Portuguese term for maize, features in both human diet and animal feed. It has a consumption estimate of 87.5 million tonnes in 2024, the third highest worldwide. Around 60% of conventional corn farms in Brazil consume maize at the farm level, as of 2023. However, these farms represent just 25% of the national output because of the overwhelming presence of large plantations, specifically for industrial corn.
How has corn production in Brazil performed in the past five years?
The table below shows close fluctuation in 2019-23 production, according to FAOSTAT’s data.
| Year | Production [tonnes] |
| 2023 | 131,950,246 |
| 2022 | 109,738,941 |
| 2021 | 88,272,116 |
| 2020 | 103,990,935 |
| 2019 | 101,126,409 |