The reopening of the Mexico border to allow cattle in after a late 2024 screwworm-related closure has not cooled uptick U.S.’ beef prices. 

According to USA Today, end 2024’s prices increased more than ever since 2019, onto record January 2025 rates.

Sirloin steak cuts ramped up $3 to the pound in five years, to settle at a January 2025 rate of $11.97 a pound. 

Meanwhile, minced beed added nearly $2 since 2019 to settle at $5.55 a pound average in March 2025. 

Between 2023 and 2024, there was a gulf of 5.5% in prices, meaning beef and veal went premium in 2024.

Cattle Inventory Hit

Blame one of the lowest cattle counts in 7 decades at 86.7 million head in January 2025 for pricey beef.  

This total also throws in a negligible annual increase in milk cows (excluding the newly calved) to 9.35 million head. 

Beef cattle in their part have shrunk further by 1% year-on-year to  27.9 million head in January 2025. 

Enter the Mexico Dilemma

A key determinant of a price drop because of its premise to increase cattle circulation within the U.S. is importation from Mexico.

Indeed, the reopening of Mexico’s borders for cattle crossings after the screwworm import ban of late 2024 boded much promise.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, some 13,709 head from Mexico had crossed into the U.S. up to March 5, 2025. The country imports some 191,222 head of cattle from Mexico per year, going by 2024 sales. 

What is worrying is that this has not helped cool the price, which in turn switches focus on producer trends. Data indicates that American cattle ranchers are selling their herds to settle debts without replacements. 

So, a low cattle count and an erratic replacement tradition are all contributing to the steady strength of beef prices in the United States. And below is how population tracking has lately paired off with the price patterns of both beef and live cattle.

United States Beef Cattle 2024-25 Population/Price Statistics

Because population influences prices, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) keeps annual inventories. In the January 2025 inventory, the head count shrunk  the most in 5 decades to 86,622 million head versus 87,157.4 million in January 2024. This also marked a 1 % annual drop. 

Cows and calves have remained put at 37,212.8 million head in January 2025 versus 37,359.8 million in January 2024. Calved cattle have shrunk 1% from the 28,013 million head of January 2024 to 27,863.5 million head  in January 2025. Only milk cows at 9,349.3 million head in January 2025, versus 9,346.8 million head in January 2024, have increased a little.

How has inventory decrease affected 2024-25 beef and cattle prices?

With this population decline, so have both beef and live cattle prices curved upward. USDA has downsized commercial beef production 2% for 2025 to 26.6 billion pounds but edged up steer prices. Steers in 2025 will cost around $201 per hundred weight (cwt), above the $187.12 per cwt in 2024.  Beef cuts have followed suit by rising to $11.97 a pound for sirloin steak in early 2025, according to USA Today.