A tariff war is back after the United States slapped Mexico, Canada and China with import tariffs.

President Trump called China’s bluff by imposing an immediate 10% tariff on all imports, starting February 4, 2025.  This is short of the aggressive duty of 60% he had promised during the 2024 election campaign. 

China, which could retaliate, currently exports $355.3 billion more goods to the United States than it imports from there.

Canada and Mexico bagged a 25% import duty apiece on many goods, many of which agri-food. Unlike China, the two U.S.’ neighbors however have a grace period for the duty only takes effect on March 4. 

Which Agricultural Goods?

In a move that Trump claims will ease an expanding trade deficit, key agricultural goods are on the line. 

One of these is avocados, whose deficit with key partner, Mexico, looms large.  The U.S. imports 81% of its avocados from its neighbor but hardly ships any of its own there.  In 2021, for instance, the U.S. exported just $31 million worldwide and bought $3 billion in avocados, mostly from Mexico. 

Other goods in the tariff line include tomatoes from Mexico as well as meat and spirits from Canada.

Significantly, spirits and whiskey imports from Canada have so far been enjoying zero tariffs in the past three decades. 

On the flip side, Canada says it could retaliate with 25% duty on American wine, peanut butter and orange juice. 

China in its part exports cotton, dairy, poultry, tree nuts and soybeans and receives pork, soy and corn from the United States.

Does Import Duty Hurt Local Companies?

While the import tariff targets the origin country, local importers feel the real pinch because they pay the tax directly to U.S. Treasury. 

Thus, a company in the United States shipping from China will henceforth be paying 10% in tax to federal customs. 

To recoup the cost, the same importer will definitely pass on the costs to the American consumer. 

But some well-performing entities could hold on for a while before passing costs. One of these is Chipotle, a U.S.-based avocado and tomato shipper from Mexico. The company said just after the 25% tariff hit on Mexico that it will absorb the costs.

Chipotle can afford this stand since it recorded a rare transaction growth in 2024 of 5%, according to Yahoo Finance. 

Nevertheless, the company admits that if the March 4 tariffs turn permanent, it will have no choice but to raise avocado prices.  

It therefore looks like the latest tariffs have reawakened the pre-2020 trade war, this time round in an impatient era. Below are extra bits on the top agricultural imports from the U.S. from each of the three countries vis-á-vis tariffs.

United States Tariff Statistics for Top Agriculture Imports 

Below are the top agricultural imports by the United States from Mexico, Canada and China, with their respective tariffs. 

Mexico import: avocado. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Mexico exported over $3.5 billion of avocados in 2021. This value however decreased to $3 billion in 2023. 81% of these exports normally land in the United States, at $3 billion, as of 2021. Currently, the U.S. imposes a duty of ¢11.2 per kg of imported avocados including on Mexico’s shipments. 

Canada import: baked goods. In 2023, the U.S. suffered a trade deficit with Canada of -$78.4 billion, hence the current imposition of new tariffs. Other than sawn wood, baked goods (pastries, biscuits and bread) was the top agricultural import by the United States from Canada in 2023.  These goods were worth $5.034 billion. Though bread is not in the list of the slated March 4, 2025 duty, the related pasta will attract 25% duty.

China import: textile: as of 2021, the U.S was facing a massive trade deficit with China of –$355.3 billion.  The key agricultural import from China is textile, which amounts to $50.3 billion (2021) and is equal to 32.6% of all American textile imports. Textile tariff from China is at 10% as of February 4, 2025.