India could export 1 million tonnes of sugar in the 2024-25 season, despite expectations of low cane harvest.
In a January 19 Reuters story, an unnamed official speculated that the country could authorize the million-tonne shipments.
The export allowance might support local prices after millers agitated for a minimum selling price above 31 rupees ($0.36) a kg.
Sugar cost in India is currently still low in mandis (wholesale) at 41.42 rupees ($0.48), as of January 18, 2024.
However, expectations are for the above rate to improve now that some sugar will be shipping out of the country.
The country had been dallying with renewing exports in the past to clear current stock surpluses and thus reorient stagnant prices. Nevertheless, few expected outbound shipments could be so high, despite exports hitting 1.94 million tonnes in 2023.
Domestic and International Price Impact
The decision might impact local and international prices, given India’s largesse as the third biggest sugar shipper (2023/24).
Exports will further pressure cane supplies following the removal of cap on cane-derived ethanol production on August 29, 2024.
Beginning the 2024-25 market year on November 1, 2024 onward, millers can generously use cane syrup and juice to make ethanol.
Analysts expect maximum ethanol production from cane to be hard on sugarcane supplies while prices could rise in the long run.
At the global level, prices have been dropping by an annual average of 5% in recent years. The international spot price on January 10, 2025 was at $0.19 per pound.
With exports from India, this could mean extra reserves in the already saturated market, and a blow for domestic reserves.
Local Supplies 5m Tonnes Less
Already, trade bodies are forecasting 2025’s India’s sugar production to fall to 27 million tonnes, below 2023’s 32 million tonnes.
This could mean a deficit of 2 million tonnes in domestic needs, for India consumes 29 million tonnes annually.
All in all, the central government has assured nationals that there will be enough reserves even after the upcoming exports. And as the following statistics show, past strategic governmental policies have always determined industry direction.
India Sugar Policy Statistics
From export curbs to the maintainance of a minimum selling price, below are statistics on India’s sugar policy history:
Late 1920s-early 1930s: according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), India’s sugar industry matured in the late 1920s and early ‘30s. Then, only 29 factories with a capacity for 100,000 tonnes were operating. This was thanks to governmental liberalization of the sector through the Sugar Industry Proctection Act. The Act helped millers compete with imports through a tariff, and by 1935, the country had become self-sufficient.
Mid-1930s to 1951: by the time the country gained independnce, it had ensured fair pricing for farmers via pricing policies. This is why 60% of cane supplies came from smallholder farmers. From 1951 onward, an industrialization Act placed sugar production, pricing and almost all industrial aspects under governmental policy.
1995: in 1995, India was the biggest sugar producer in the world at 16.5 million tonnes. Although Brazil has usurped the global production lead in the 2000s, it still competes closely with India.
How have policies affected consumption of sugar in India?
If anything, fair sugar pricing policies and ample domestic quantities have upped the sugar consumption per capita. Betweeen the mid-1960s and mid-’90s, sugar consumption per capita grew from 5 to 13 kg per person per year. By 2021, the per capita had reached 17.4 kg, albeit down from the all-time high of 22.4 kg in 2018.
Are sugar exports now deregulated?
While India once regulated exports, it nowadays only curbs whenever shortage hits the local market. Thus, in the 2023-24 market year, the country emerged the third biggest exporter of raw cane sugar at 1.94 million tonnes.