Rabobank reduced its projection of the Brazilian coffee production of the 2023/2024 harvest by 1.1 million bags, according to the AgroInfo bulletin, released on Friday (31st).

With this, the bank’s new estimate is that the country will harvest 66 million bags of grain.

“Despite the good recovery in the regions of Mogiana Paulista and Cerrado Mineiro, the high rate of fruit abortion in the Zona da Mata Mineira region and an irregular situation in the south of Minas Gerais negatively impacted the production of Arabica coffee,” explains the report, already based on the analyses until February.

In the species, the current estimate is a harvest of 42.7 million bags-which points to a reduction of 1.3 million bags compared to the last projection. On the other hand, the conilon coffee harvest should be slightly better, predicted at 23.3 million bags.

“In our view, even with a stable harvest in Espírito Santo, Rondônia and Bahia should grow their productions.”

International scenario

On the international scene, Rabobank projects a global deficit of 1.9 million bags in 2022/23 and a surplus of only 1.6 million bags in 2023/24.

Soybeans, sugar and beef pull a drop in the movements of the Port of Santos

“Looking ahead, the current context of restriction of the coffee supply should bring more volatility to Brazil coffee prices, especially in the 1st semester. However, the harvest of the new Brazilian harvest and the recovery of production in relevant regions, such as Colombia and Honduras, may limit prices in the 2nd half of 2023,” says the document.

The bank’s analysis also points out that, after a strong drop at the end of 2022, Arabica coffee prices appreciated in 2023, with highs of 14% and 10% (between January and March) in New York (ICE-NY) and Brazil, respectively.

The explanation is a shortage of coffee in the short term, which has been supporting the quotations, and despite the expectation of recovery of production in producing regions.

Exports fell 25% in 2023

In recent months, Brazil has significantly decreased its coffee exports. In the first two months of the year, 5.2 million bags were shipped, a drop of 25.4% compared to the same period in 2022.

“In our last report we warned about this possibility, especially considering the smaller local stocks due to the frustrating harvests in 2021 and 2022 and the low appetite of producers to negotiate their remaining volumes,” Rabobank analysts say.

In addition, it completes the report, with the strengthening of differentials, high interest rates and the reversal of the future price curve in New York (ICE-NY), coffee buyers have sought to negotiate only what is necessary to cover their commitments.

The expectation is that the situation will improve from the 2nd semester with the entry of the new Brazilian harvest.

Other cultures

For the 2023/24 sugarcane crop in the Center-South, Rabobank bets on an increase in milling of 7% -which will help “increase revenue and dilute fixed costs, while the international price of sugar remains firm”.

When it comes to the 2022/23 corn crop, Rabobank estimates an increase in area of 3% over the area planted in 2021/22, which will result in a total corn crop of 126 million tons – an increase of 11 million tons, when compared to the previous cycle.

“The expected total increase in the soybean and corn harvest in Brazil should add a total of 35 million tons of grains to be produced in Brazil – a historical record,” estimates the institution.

“The record volume of the national grain harvest and the inevitable increase in exports, will bring an increase in the costs of the disposal of this production in a very tight logistical scenario. Rabobank estimates that Brazilian corn exports are expected to reach 49 million tons, an increase of 5.5 million tons in 2023 compared to the previous cycle.”

Source: agrofy.com.br