Sugar prices ended 2025 on a promising note on both sides of the Atlantic after Brazil lowered 2026-27 production projections.
Short-covering traders in New York recorded a price hike of 1.35% day-on-day on December 31 for #11 (raw cane sugar). This is even as their London counterparts gained by 0.56% for #5 (white sugar).
Although the price was still stuck at $0.15 a pound, it marked an overall daily gain of an average 1.15% internationally.
Carryover strength came from Safras & Mercado consulting, which recently forecast Brazil’s 2026-27 output to decline by 3.91% annually, to 41.8 million tonnes.
In itself, the forecast is reminiscent of a similar stimulus in August 2025 when a yield fall forecast in Brazil saw raw cane sugar rally briefly.
Months of Low Sugar Prices
The latest downturn projection is a turnaround from a bevy of record production forecasts for 2025-26, which have significantly cheapened the sweetener.
Together with India’s similarly high current production prospects, Brazil’s output had pressured international sugar rates through most of 2025.
The national forecasting agency, Conab, on November 4, 2025 upped production estimates for 2025-26 from 44.5 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes.
On December 16, the national Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) reported sugar processing in the strategic central-south area as up by 1.1% annually.
India, the world’s second sugar-milling nation, meanwhile repeatedly fronted strong expectations of a record 2025-26 sugar year. On November 11, 2025, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) upped production by 18.8% annually, to 31 million tonnes.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) also raised 2025-26 global output by 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 181.8 million tonnes.
Production downturn projections for 2026-27 in Brazil by Safras & Mercado therefore offer a timely check to reigning bright prospects.
The firm not only expects the Amazon nation’s output to dip but also foresees exports slipping by 11% next season.
Sugar exports by Brazil are economically important globally because they reflect almost 50% of global sugar trade.
In the 2022-23 marketing year, Brazil sold 28.2 million tonnes of raw sugar, far ahead of runner-up Thailand at 11 million tonnes. Ample sugar prices that year helped the industry grow, supported by other sugars. Indeed, raw cane sugar is not the only sweetener the country sells, per the stats below.
Brazil Sugar Statistics
Brazil leads worldwide sugar production with about 24% annual production share. Output estimate for 2025-26 stood at 44.7 million tonnes, per a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s April 2025 report. The estimate marks 1 million tonnes more output than the 2024-25 season’s 43.7 million tonnes. This significant gain owes to improving milling ability, which means processing maximization even with low cane volumes. Indeed, the Brazilian sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) cited that milling capacity upped by 15% in the half-decade ending 2025.
Speaking of cane, Brazil harvests 671 million tonnes of the plant annually, per a USDA 2025-26 projection. Though slightly lower than the final 2024-25 production total at 677.8 million tonnes, this volume still allows sufficient crushing with current technology. Brazil’s sugarcane harvest area extends to around 10 million hectares, mostly in the central-south geographical region.
How important are Brazil’s sugar exports globally?
Since Brazil ships the bulk of its production, it saturates the world with about 50% of all international supplies. As a result, any market change within Brazil, such as prices, affects international markets.
Does Brazil export other sugars?
Although overshadowed by the behemoth raw cane sugar industry, other pure sugars also exist in Brazil. According to the World Bank, Brazil in 2023 exported 83,479 kg of pure sugars such as ethers worth $632,090. Although the volumes trail world leader Germany whose exports clock 102.544 million kg (2023), they illustrate a thriving side industry in Brazil.