Waning global demand has lowered sugar prices to their cheapest point in 4 years, nearly matching crude oil’s related 4.75-year low.
On December 22, 2025, raw white sugar was averaging $0.15 a pound in New York’s futures despite advancing by 0.94% day-on-day.
Covrig Analytics forecasts a worldwide surplus of 4.2 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season due to Brazil’s current robust sugarcane crop.
The above excess is comparatively minor to other seasons that had up to 11 million tonnes in surplus, according to Covrig.
Another November 5 estimate by sugar firm Czarnikow nevertheless puts the global surplus to 8.7 million tonnes, per Yahoo Finance.
Consumption in major producers like India could make this excess turn significant when paired with output surge.
India expects a sharp rise in production of the sweetener by 19% year-on-year in 2025-26, to 35 million tonnes.
The subcontinent has renewed exports totaling 1.5 million tonnes, a low amount that may lead to stockpiling at home.
Despite the stockpiling threat, demand is retreating in this number 2 sugar-producing nation after Brazil.
India apparently lost 1 million tonnes in sugar consumption in 2025 versus 2024, according to Covrig Analytics’ founder and lead analyst, Claudiu Covrig.
Enter Cheap Crude
Adding pressure to market imbalance is influential crude oil whose rates fell to 4.75-year lows on the 22nd, undercutting ethanol.
Whenever crude cheapens, it also makes prices of ethanol bearish, forcing millers to convert cane reserved for the biofuel into sugar.
On December 23, WTI crude was down 0.21% daily, to $57.89 a barrel while Brent crude lost by 16%, to $61.97/barrel.
The development directly affected Brazil, whose Petrobras oil firm recently downed petrol rates, forcing ethanol millers to lower their break even margins.
What this means is raising sugar milling while cutting ethanol, helping realize Brazil’s 2025-26 sugar output projection of 44.7 million tonnes.
This is significant in the world context because Brazil controls 65% to 70% of international raw sugar trade – cites Covrig. If the country’s impressive sugar production forecast goes down to the wire, prices could decrease further. Low prices could also help recoup falling global sugar demand, per the stats below.
Global Sugar Demand Statistics
Sugar demand is tied to population growth and market factors like production, prices and consumption. Population growth will raise worldwide sugar consumption to 202 million tonnes by 2034, per the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This indicates a growth rate of 1.2% per annum, beginning 2024. The growth will be most apparent in regions with population explosion, especially Africa and Asia. Sugar demand growth in the two regions will by 2034 represent 29% (Africa) and 64% (Asia) of the worldwide demand growth.
Market prices also drive demand for sugar worldwide. In 2023, for example, fair international rates at $0.22 a pound drove consumption. The world utilized 177.882 million tonnes of sugar that year, per the International Sugar Organization (ISO). In the 2024-25 context when prices decreased to below $0.20 a pound, ISO’s projections notably upped consumption to 178.79 million tonnes.
Consumption by volume is the single most exact measure of sugar demand. The ISO in November 2025 upped global sugar deficit (consumption + production) to just 231,000 tonnes (2025-26) from 2.916 million (2024-25). This means that demand in 2025-26 could almost equal production. Below is a look at the countries with the highest consumption volumes as a measure of sugar demand.
| Country | Sugar consumption [annual] |
| India | 28.527 million tonnes |
| United States | 22.7 million tonnes |
| China | 12.891 million tonnes |
| Russia | 8.977 million tonnes |
| Brazil | 8.072 million tonnes |