China finally capitulated by promising to buy 12 million tonnes of soy from the United States, rallying hitherto flailing commodity markets.
The announcement by the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on October 30, 2025 followed a meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump in South Korea.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins added China will purchase 12 million tonnes of soy this season and 25 million tonnes annually through 2028.
Markets in the American Midwest captured the news in good light: the leading contract at the Chicago Board of Trade immediately hit the highest price in 15 months at $11.07 3/4 a bushel.
In the week when the two leaders met, U.S.’ export prices had already sharply rebounded by $20-30 a tonne versus a week earlier.
Even before details of the agreement were out, China’s state company COFCO had ordered 180,000 tonnes, the first official import this season.
It is not clear, however, if the tariff issue that originally caused the trade tiff has been resolved. China had by September 2025 kept its soy import tariff from the United States at 34%.
Midwest States Reemerge
China’s assuagement came in the eleventh hour just when farmers in Midwestern states were losing hope of selling surpluses at throw away prices.
Indiana for instance traditionally transacts some of its soy to China while Minnesota ships 60% of production overseas.
Michigan on the other hand had recorded 46% annual soymeal export declines in quarter 1 2025, due to the then looming trade fears.
With the cloud gone, Indiana is readying to recoup the 65% of total farm income that soybeans bring to the state.
The state already has more to sell this year after a bumper harvest, a fact that local Republican leader, Jim Baird, mentioned.
Baird voiced hopes that China buys more than it has promised to leverage the good yields that his state currently boasts.
What remains now is whether federal soy markets will recover the $24.5 billion they earned in 2024, 50% of which from China. Already, the currently ending 2025 harvest is promising to be the 5th biggest ever. The statistics below in their part explore key soy markets for the U.S.
United States Soy Markets Statistics
The United States boasts versatile soy and soymeal export markets. Sales to these destinations at a yearly average of 52.21 million tonnes bring a 3-year annual value of $28.85 billion. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), there are 10 destinations that buy at least $350 million of the commodity. These include Türkiye, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, the European Union and China.
Which five countries are the major markets for U.S.’ soy?
China is the biggest market for soybeans from the U.S. at $10.1 billion out of $22.2 billion in export value (2023), per the OEC. Following suit are Mexico at $2.3 billion, Indonesia at $1.26 billion, Germany at $1.05 billion and Egypt at $1.01 billion, all 2023 values. Also emerging is the Türkiye market, which in 2025 took the place of absentee China as an alternative source.
Where does soy grow in the United States?
The American Midwest is the biggest source of soybeans. 29.1% of land inside production leader Illinois, for example, is under the crop. The same applies to runners-up Iowa (28% of land), Indiana (24%), Minnesota (13.6%) and Nebraska (11.6%). In 2024, Illinois supplied 18.7 million tonnes while Iowa 16.3 million tonnes. Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska in their parts harvested 9.3, 9 and 8.2 million tonnes, respectively.