Soybean futures in Chicago lost to a 1 1/2-month low on September 22, 2025 while corn’s rates rallied around ethanol demand.
At dawn trade, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)’s top contract shed 0.1% from the earlier session to $10.24 1/4 per bushel.
This lowest performance since August 12 aligns with prediction by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) of an ample harvest this fall.
Likewise, the S&P Global Commodity Insights on September 19 forecast a 2026 federal soy acreage expansion by 3.6% annually, to 84 million acres.
Current losses however directly owe to diplomatic tensions with China, which by the 22nd had not yet booked the fall crop.
A telephone communique between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump the foregoing week had raised American soy product prices before reversal.
But while commercial traders in Chicago court losses, shippers in the Gulf ports of south U.S. are doing better.
According to the Hellenic Shipping News, CIF Gulf boats are offloading their soy loads at 3 cents above those in Chicago.
Corn Boosted by Ethanol
Corn in turn is surprisingly doing strong despite a September 12 prediction by the USDA of record acreage at 98.7 million acres.
On September 19, corn for December delivery in Chicago stabilized at $4.20 a bushel, the highest since August 12.
Demand for the E15 ethanol mandate is the godsend for corn’s stability as it is increasing purchases for energy conversion.
Were it not for the ethanol intervention, analysts think the best rate for the grain would be a flat $4 a bushel.
Current corn and soybean rates therefore hinge on China’s trade move and ethanol demand, respectively. The following statistics push this trade aspect further by examining production effect on price.
Statistics on Production Effect on Corn and Soybean Rates in the United States
A lot of trade factors regularly affect soy and corn rates in the U.S. One of the most important for soy is production largesse: the U.S., along with Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina together produce 80% and export 90% of worldwide soy volumes annually. Whenever production is higher or the world’s biggest buyers reduce purchases, prices usually sink. For example in late September 2025, rates sank to $10.25 a bushel. This was after the U.S. boosted its soy stocks to 1.02 billion bushels in June 2025 and China delayed crop bookings. Prices of the oilseed have seen better times, per the data below by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA):
| Highlight Month-and-Year | Price [$/bushel] |
| July 2025 | 10.20 |
| January 2024 | 12.80 |
| March 2023 | 14.90 |
| June 2022 | 16.40 |
| May 2020 | 8.28 |
| January 2015 | 10.30 |
Fig: key months when U.S.’ soy producer prices either hit period highs or lows, 2015-25
For corn, production gains, along with those of related grains, kills prices. By early September 2025, beginning 2025-26 stocks of feed grains including corn and sorghum were 2.6 million tonnes more annually. If this continued, prices of corn would dive to below the $4/bushel rate they sustained between November 2024 and July 2025:
| Highlight Month-and-Year | Price [$/bushel] |
| July 2025 | 4.29 |
| January 2024 | 4.74 |
| February 2023 | 6.80 |
| June 2022 | 7.38 |
| June 2020 | 3.16 |
| November 2017 | 3.17 |
| April 2015 | 3.75 |
Fig: key months when U.S.’ corn producer prices either hit period highs or lows, 2015-25