Beef production in Down Under could break records in 2025 thanks to herd stability, according to the Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA).
In its September 1, 2025 update, the MLA projects the country to process 2.79 million tonnes of beef this year. This is the latest major development since 2023’s price-crashing spike in the national herd count to 28.7 million head.
Two factors inform the oncoming beef record, namely herd stability at 31 million head and carcass weight gains.
Although the national livestock count will depreciate slightly, that of cattle will remain steady due to a maturing stocking structure.
Leading the way are robust grain-fed slaughter cattle with an average dressed weight stability of 309.5 kg a head.
The MLA expects this weight average to stay put throughout 2025 due to plenty of feed from recent autumnal rains.
2025’s slaughter rate will also increase by 8.6% to 9.02 million cattle, vis-á-vis the 2024 equivalent.
2026 and 2027 Outlook
The reigning steadiness in herd numbers and beef production will spill over into 2026 but will decrease in 2027.
According to the MLA, beef exports will underpin the sustainability of the herd in 2025 by hitting 1.5 million tonnes.
But because ranchers will be focusing more on stability than expansion, cattle numbers and exports could dip in 2027.
For now, however, Aussie beef will continue to enjoy privileged trade because competitors Brazil and the U.S. are still recovering.
The United States is still expanding its feeder cattle numbers after 2024 recorded the lowest cattle population since 1951.
In Brazil’s situation, a drought in combination with record slaughter had a downward effect on the head count.
Before the two competitors catch up, Australia is meanwhile exploiting the latest predictions to the full. According to Erin Lukey, the MLA’s acting market information manager, “these projections are a vital tool for the red meat industry.” The projections guide ranchers in a competitive global beef trade featuring a dominant Australia, whose production stats appear below.
Australia Beef Production Statistics
Beef production in Australia mostly tilts towards exports. In 2023, outbound shipments were worth US$8 billion or 12.6% of the world’s supply value. All this owes to steady quarterly production that more or less increased from June 2023 through June 2025. While the quarter ending June 2023 produced 535,400 tonnes of beef, the equivalent quarter in 2025 garnered 706,300 tonnes. The data below by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) gives concrete quarterly production details:
June-September 2023: 563,200 tonnes of beef out of 1,803,900 head of slaughter cattle.
December 2023-March 2024: 602,100 tonnes of beef versus 1,948,100 head of slaughter cattle.
March 2025-June 2025: 706,300 tonnes of beef from 2,280,300 head of slaughter cattle.
Which portion of beef butchered in Australia is for export?
In 2024, Australia shipped 61% of its beef output and emerged the second biggest exporter that year. According to estimates by Rabobank Research,75% of 2025 production might end up in exports due to stabilizing domestic consumption. The United States is the biggest single recipient of this outbound portion. In 2024, the American market gobbled up 30.7% of the 1.34 million tonnes of beef that Australia shipped worldwide.
Where are 2026 live cattle prices in Australia heading?
According to Rabo Bank, 2026 will notch up young cattle pricing from A$4.09 ($2.67) per live weight kg to A$4-4.2 ($2.6-2.75). This increment will reflect high global demand.