Rains at home and surpluses elsewhere have turned wheat bearish for producers in southeastern and northeastern Australia.
By August 12, 2025, bulk prices were down to A$330 ($216.18) a tonne in northern New South Wales and across Queensland.
The low outlook follows July saturation that revived the southern crop that includes the Victoria wheat belt.
Rainfall has improved the 2025-26 national production estimates to 34 million tonnes, same as the 2024-25 final output.
The upper figure undercuts the June 2025 forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics (ABARES) of 30.6 million tonnes.
The ABARES’ projections reflect those of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 31 million tonnes, both 10% annual production decreases.
Hence, Western Australia’s wheat markets hovered lowly at between C$310 and C$350 ($203.1- 229.32) a tonne on August 12, per Grain Brokers.
International Surplus
Weighing on Australia’s market price are gaining harvests in the U.S. and Europe, which have triggered a global rate downfall.
Chicago’s wheat futures were flat at $0.26 (€0.22) a kg this week while France’s bourses managed €0.28 ($0.33).
This has had a good effect on heavy importers, which currently enjoy some of the lowest rates since 2020.
For Aussie wheat, another bout of rain around September could benefit especially the Victoria crop and secure the harvest. What this means for prices will depend on the international situation, which is currently in oversupply mode. A look at the following statistics argues the case further from an Australian trade viewpoint.
Australia Wheat Trade Statistics
Of all winter grains in Australia, wheat is by far the biggest in terms of annual production sales. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the country sold 50 million tonnes in winter grains in the 2023-24 market year. Wheat accounted for 56% of the total, at 28.028 million tonnes.
In actual production, wheat annually averages between 22.275 million tonnes (2015) and 40.545 million tonnes (2022-23). This is per the production data by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA’s statistic downplays production (including sales) in the 2023-24 market year at 25.96 million tonnes.
Which territory sells the most Aussie wheat?
Western Australia transacts the most wheat per year at 14.623 million tonnes (2022-23), according to the ABS. Following closely is New South Wales in the northeast at 11.195 million tonnes (2022-23). South Australia at 6.83 million tonnes (2022-23) and Victoria at 4.976 million tonnes come next in annual production sales.
Is Australia a major wheat exporter?
Australia ranks among the top 5 wheat-exporting countries any given year. In 2024, the country was 3rd globally, with sales worth US$5.6 billion or 11.8% of worldwide exports. Only the United States with 12.5% share and Canada sold more of the grain that year.