Chocolate spread prices worldwide could soon rival rising hazelnut wholesale rates in Türkiye, where the 2025 harvest battled frost.
The worst cold snap since 2014 drenched the country’s Black Sea region in April 2025, downing output to 453,000 tonnes from 717,000 tonnes in 2024.
Along with losses came shortage and price increments, which means hazelnut pastes are likely to grow expensive, too.
In early August 2025, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) upswung hazelnut wholesale minimum rates substantially.
The TMO’s 2025-26 minimum rate for Giresun grade nuts is 200 Turkish Lira ($4.92) a kg, a 51.5% yearly increase.
The governmental board also elevated pricing for levant grade nuts to 195 Lira ($4.80) a kg, by 50% year-on-year.
Ideally, the rates above are for hazelnuts with an average 50% kernel productivity rate. Those yielding more than that are garnering at least 3.99 Lira ($0.09)/kg above the set minimum.
Independent projections by Schlüter & Maack from Hamburg, Germany push the annual price rise down to 40%, buffered by other origins.
Bitter Chocolate Harvest?
The outlook according to analysts is for international hazelnut rates to hit a decade high of $10/kg soon, bad for chocolate.
With such bullish estimates, hazelnut-derived chocolate makers in Europe that source from the Levant worry of price surges.
According to the Ritter Sport company of Germany, there is a heavy burden in raw material supplies that could stay for sometime.
In Türkiye itself, the Tayas Gida company is doing what chocolate makers did when cocoa grew quite expensive: by cutting content in some candies to only 10% hazelnut content.
So, first it was cocoa and now it is hazelnuts. With the Türkiye hazelnut harvest 1/3rd lower in 2025 than in 2024, chocolate makers will need dig deeper into their pockets. This is unlike in previous years when the nut supply was steady, per the below statistics.
Türkiye Hazelnut Statistics
As the supplier of 67% to 70% of the world’s raw hazelnuts, Türkiye reaps millions from exports. In 2022, the country generated around $2 billion from the nuts in shipments that amounted to 300,000 tonnes. With such importance, the crop has gained culturally, with certain quality grades like Giresun named after the eponymous Black Sea city. 14 provinces grow the nuts, 15 to 20% of whose output they sell locally and export the bulk remainder.
How much do hazelnuts cost wholesale in Türkiye?
The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) sets minimum rates that traders should pay producers each harvest. In 2023, the wholesale price for quality grade hazelnuts was 80 Lira ($1.97) per kg, versus August 2025’s 195 Lira ($4.80). According to the TMO, raw hazelnut prices rose quarterly by 15.02% in April 2025, 16.75% annually and 41.88% in three years.
Are there alternative sources of hazelnuts in the world?
Although Türkiye has the production monopoly, certain countries in Europe and North America also enjoy substantial supplies. In 2021, Italy came second with production at 84,670 tonnes while the United States followed at 70,310 tonnes. Other sources included Azerbaijan with 67,630 tonnes and Georgia Republic with 46,000 tonnes.