Ethanol is regaining clout in Brazil with sugar millers favoring it to counter stagnant international sugar rates, currently at US¢16-17 a pound.
Helping along is the switch by the government of Brazil to the E30 ethanol blending standard, beginning August 1, 2025.
This means engine fuel makers will have to use 30% ethanol for every 70% of petrol/gasoline blending share.
Since 2015, Brazil has been using the E27 standard or 27% ethanol in each unit production of engine fuel.
Whether this might further encourage millers to process extra ethanol and less sugar remains unclear in the context of price uncertainty.
By July 18, 2025, weekly ethanol prices in Brazil had weakened slightly due to domestic oversupply, despite 18% tariffs on imports from the U.S.
The local ethanol rate dropped 6 local cents month-on-month, to 4.15 Brazilian Reals ($0.74) a liter late July 2025.
Eye on International Sugar Prices
Even as ethanol millers especially in northern Brazil contemplate tariffs and the E30 standard, they are monitoring global sugar valuation.
Prices first rebounded to US¢17/pound in week 3 of July 2025 after Coca Cola incorporated cane sugar into its American drinks.
To traders, the decision by the multinational meant extra sugar utility and price strength at a time of surplus.
By July 29, however, offers were back to a bearish US¢16/pound, where they have been dilly-dallying for weeks.
A 2025-26 global sugar surplus by 7.5% year-on-year, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s May 2025 report, underpins the low rates.
Now it remains to see whether the oncoming ethanol blending mandate raise for fuel processors will prove bullish for sugar. To learn more about the crossroads between ethanol and sugar prices in Brazil, peruse the below statistics.
Brazil Sugar/Ethanol Prices Statistics
Brazil is a major determinant of sugar and ethanol prices worldwide due to high domestic production of the raw material (sugarcane). Cane output totaled 677.8 million tonnes, as of the 2024-25 marketing year. Conversely, the 2025-26 sugar production projection stands at 44.7 million tonnes, according to the Commodity Board Brazil. This is vis-á-vis 43.7 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season. Since changes in the domestic output affect ethanol and sugar rates, sugar millers in Brazil constantly monitor production.
How have ethanol prices performed in Brazil beginning 2024?
By late July 2025, Brazil’s ethanol prices were at 4.15 Brazilian Real ($0.74) per liter (l), versus 4.21 Real ($0.75)/l in June 2025. According to the Global Petrol Prices, July 2025 pricing fell from April 2025’s 4.32 Real ($0.77)/l. However, it was higher than July 2024’s 4.08 Real ($0.73)/l.
Did 2024-25 sugar prices in Brazil follow similar pricing patterns as ethanol ?
Like ethanol, local sugar prices depreciated between January and April 2025 due to seasonal surplus projections. 2025 began on a high of 155.31 Real ($27.78) per 50 kg while January 2024 had clocked 145.04 Real ($25.95)/50 kg. However, as production predictions hiked, by April the rates had fallen to 141.59 Real ($25.33)/50 kg.