Flailing global sugar markets rallied modestly after crude oil registered international market price gains on June 3, 2025.
Brent crude oil gained by 0.651% day-on-day, to $65.44 a barrel on the 3rd. Later in the day, sugar pricing in New York and London added 0.12 and 0.59% in daily margins, respectively.
After the previous day’s increases, New York’s raw sugar or #11 further added 0.47% early morning June 4, to $0.17 a pound.
Although the rate is shy of the $0.21/lb high in late February and mid-March 2025, it is nevertheless hope-giving.
Brent and WTI crude benchmarks brought this hope by improving weekly pricing by 1.01% and 2.28%, respectively, sparking up ethanol.
Whenever crude prices strengthen, ethanol rates also improve, pressuring processors to utilize cane at the expense of sugar, whose prices gain.
The reverse had happened early March 2025 when low crude oil pricing had taken sugar down with it.
And as if reprising March, both NY’s and London’s sugar futures initially lost before rallying on June 3, 2025.
Early that morning, NY markets recorded a 3 3/4-year pricing low while the London one posted a 4 1/2-year low.
With news of crude support, traders short covered stocks they had sold earlier to leverage new high prices.
The gain may not last long, however, with only oil and ethanol in support. This is because, inside the sugar market itself, upward production in key origins is proving negative for prices.
India reiterated an uptick production forecast at 35 million tonnes on June 2, 2025 courtesy the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories.
The same robust output applies to price influencer, Brazil, whose latest 2025-26 output projection will climb to 44.7 million tonnes. This is per a May 22, 2025 survey by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
2025-26 Production Cancels 2024-25 Deficit
The above production gains are countering a rising global deficit for the foregoing 2024-25 year, now at -5.47 million tonnes.
This backdated mid-May 2025 deficit update by the International Sugar Organization (ISO) is the highest in 9 years.
The 2024-25 supply shortfall’s effect on prices is yet to be felt because of upward production in the upcoming 2025-26 year. A May 2025 forecast by the USDA predicts global production to climb to 189.3 million tonnes in the 2025-2026 timeline.
So, sugar market prices are back in the black modestly via crude oil support, despite checks by high production forecasts. To learn more on the most recent crude effect on the prices of the sweetener, scour through below statistics.
Monthly Crude Oil Vs. Sugar Market Price
Internal production and market factors alone cannot stay sugar prices, for crude oil has historically been an influencer. Here is how both U.S. sugar #11 (raw sugar) and crude oil have surged or sunk together, and sometimes gone separate ways by Quarter 2, 2025:
January 2025: while crude oil sells at $72.53 a barrel on January 1, up by 1.13% monthly, sugar clinches US¢19.73 a pound on January 3.
February 2025: crude loses monthly by -3.82%, on February 1, to $69.76 a barrel. Sugar, too, loses to US¢19.26 a pound on February 3.
March 2025: crude oil gains to $71.48 a barrel on March 1, by 2.75%, but sugar depreciates month-to-date to US¢18.22, on March 3.
April 2025: oil sinks by -18.56%, to $58.21 a barrel on April 1, and sugar follows on April 3, to US¢18.08.
May 2025: crude gains by 4.43% monthly, on May 1, to $60.79 a barrel, but sugar loses to US¢17 on May 2.
June 2025: crude gains 4.03%, month-on-month (m-o-m), on June 1, to $63.04 a barrel. On June 3, sugar also gains or stays put at US¢17 a pound, m-o-m.