Improved conditions of American field cereals dealt a 0.7% daily wheat price slide at the Chicago Board of Trade on June 3, 2025.
The leading futures contract lost 0.7% to $5.35 1/4 a bushel on the 3rd at dawn, underpinned by good crop progress.
On June 2, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated spring and winter wheat 50% and 52% good-to-excellent, respectively.
The rating for spring wheat strains was rather a surprise for the industry had pegged them at 47% excellent, maximum.
American Wheat Strains Reprise Corn
A week earlier on May 23, conditions were even more promising with maturing wheat conditions echoing corn’s massive planting progress.
On the 23rd, 67% of soft red winter (SRW) wheat was good-to-excellent while corn sowing had been 61% complete a week earlier.
Like wheat, progress has lowered corn prices from May 11 onward, to a six-month low by June 2, 2025.
Regarding hard red winter (HRS), Texas had the distinction of already harvesting 8% of its crop by the 23rd .
Other states had their HRW crop at 38% headed stage, while 52% of the federal crop was good-to-excellent late May.
Whenever field conditions are conducive, the expectation is for bumper output and hence the affordability of the grain in consumer markets.
But will this bearish outlook last for long? According to analysts, geopolitical events outside the U.S. such as the exacerbating Russia-Ukraine war, count, too.
One cereal trader in Singapore told Brinks Report that “geopolitical risks cap the losses,” meaning conflicts motivate prices.
Indeed, the warring eastern European countries are major wheat producers, and war between them impacts entire global supplies.
So, where next for the market prices of American wheat amid expectations of a lush crop later this summer? Read on below to discover how supply and crop condition reports can impact pricing.
United States Wheat Price Versus Supply Statistics
Each month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) publishes the WASDE report that includes wheat supply situation locally and globally. The WASDE report somewhat affects prices because it forecasts either surpluses or deficits to which traders react. The May 2025 report, for instance shows that the U.S.’ wheat production in 2025-26 will slightly lower to 52.3 million tonnes. However, the starting stock at 22.9 million tonnes is higher than that of the 2024-25 period at 19 million tonnes. This means that imports will be lesser in 2025-26 at 3.3 million tonnes than the 4.1 million tonnes of 2024-25.
Overall, the foregoing 2024-25 market year was mostly bearish on price. This was because it had been a productive year. For instance, according to the U.S. Wheat Associates (USW), all wheat production that year was 53.6 million tonnes versus 49.1 million tonnes in 2023-24. While the beginning stocks in the 2024-25 year were at 18.9 million, those in 2023-24 were at 15.5 million tonnes. For this reason, prices in U.S.’ FOB Gulf for all wheat trended below $300 per tonne, beginning November 2024 through early 2025. In retrospect, the rates had touched $350 a tonne in the undersupplied May 2023 timeline.
While the above WASDE supply showings impact prices indirectly, crop progress reports by the USDA have real-time impact. For instance, on May 30, 2025, when over half the hard red wheat was excellent condition, the price levelled to $6.26 a bushel. By June 2, 2025, spring and winter wheat were 50% and 52% good-to-excellent, respectively, felling prices to 5.35 1/4 a bushel.