South Africa is bracing for costly chicken after a Brazil origin ban has forced processors to comb for limited supplies locally.
Avian flu concerns in Brazil since April 30, 2025 will affect roughly 84% of all poultry imports by South Africa.
Estimates put the monthly supplies of mechanically deboned meat (MDM) and offal to be at deficit during the ban. The expected deficits include 3,773 tonnes of chicken feet, 1,315 tonnes of gizzards and 287 tonnes of livers.
These products are usually the cheapest sources of protein for local school programs and could strain budgets if rates surge.
By May 30, 2025, deboned meat had doubled farm gate pricing to 31 Rand ($1.74) a kg while offal more than doubled.
Even before the import ban, fresh chicken meat prices had appreciated by 2.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4 2024.
According to the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC), producer prices for fresh chicken reached 35 Rand ($1.96) a kg late 2024.
The quarter’s most affordable poultry meat source was individual quick frozen (IQF) chicken, at above 30 Rand ($1.68) per kg.
Alternative Options
Meanwhile, South Africa is considering mooting regionalization options with Brazil to demarcate areas without avian flu from which to source.
Any such agreement will follow neighboring Namibia’s example of resuming imports from certain regions of Brazil earlier this week.
Another option is a switch to local beef, currently abundant due to China’s import moratorium adrift foot and mouth disease.
Since the disease is undergoing containment in Mpumalanga and Gauteng, supplies could rally and force a downward price drift.
So, what next for chicken in South Africa, especially processed products such as sausage that rely on offal and deboned meat imports? The assessment below offers a glimpse of how much imports mean to the sector.
South Africa Chicken Meat Imports Statistics
Although South Africa expects a 3% increase in chicken meat production in 2025 to 1.65 million tonnes, it still needs imports. The country ships in about 1/5th of its production volume to cover the remaining consumption gap. According to a September 2024 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), 2025’s imports could however drop to 320,000 tonnes. But the report preceded a May 2025 ban on Brazil’s imports and hence inbound shipments could shrink further.
Which is the biggest chicken meat import origin for South Africa?
Brazil supplies 73% of South Africa’s bone-in chicken meat and offal imports, and 92% of all mechanized deboned meat orders. Much of this input goes into family budgets and school lunch programs due to affordability.
What were SA’s chicken import volumes by category in Q4 2024?
Deboned frozen chicken led imports in Q4 2024 at 66,372 tonnes while frozen carcasses followed at 1,431 tonnes. Data by the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC) also shows that quarterly whole frozen chicken shrunk to 1,389 tonnes. This is even as Q4’s chicken feet orders rose to 12,248 tonnes. Inbound shipments for boneless chicken breasts fell to 25 tonnes, echoing wings’ fall to 616 tonnes.
How much chicken does South Africa’s population eat annually?
The USDA estimates 2025 chicken consumption in SA to rise by 2%, to 1.88 million tonnes. This is slightly more than the local production estimate of 1.65 million tonnes for the year, and hence the import reliance.