Beginning May 23 through 27, global sugar prices have inclined lower to US¢17 a pound, following international surplus prospects.

On May 23, 2025, sugar no.11 (raw) for July delivery in New York slid by -1.69% daily margin, to US¢17.72 a pound. This was even as sugar no.5 (white) in London lost in the daily price category by -1.93%.

Nearly a week later on May 27, raw sugar in New York was still in the same territory, at US¢17.22/lb.

The lukewarm performance after a March 17, 2025 rally owes to a 2024-25 production glut in key sources.

According to a Datagro forecast of May 22 on Nasdaq, the world will have a 2025-26 surplus of 1.54 million tonnes. This marks a sharp rebound from a deficit of -4.67 million tonnes in the ending 2024-25 season. 

Leading the upward production tally are the two most important sugar origins, namely India and Brazil.

India’s production will improve by 26% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the 2025-26 market year, to 35 million tonnes. This is per the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast on May 6. 

FAS also put Brazil’s 2025-26 output at 44.7 million tonnes or 2.3% more than for the 2024-25 season. 

U.S. Has No Surplus

On the peripheries, the United States will see 2025-26 domestic deliveries contract to 13.791 million tonnes. 

This contraction however will spare the American food and beverages sector, whose sugar deliveries will match those of 2024-25. 

Balancing the act for the U.S. will be Mexico, which will have a 6% production surplus, y-o-y, in 2025-26. According to the USDA, Mexico will produce 5.094 million tonnes of sugar, 572,489 tonnes of which will ship to the U.S. market 

Without counting the Mexico input, reduction in home supplies could benefit sugar prices in the United States.

For now however, a global sugar surplus in especially India, Brazil and Mexico is putting prices under pressure. To learn more on worldwide pricing in the 2024-25 sugar market year, read the statistics section, next. 

2024-25 Global Sugar Prices and Surplus Statistics

Sugar output, whether in surplus or deficit, causes price fluctuations. In February 2025, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised the 2024-25 deficit to –4.9 million tonnes. The same month, sugar reached a Q1 2025 price high of over US¢21 a pound. In early May, however, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected production surpluses in India and Brazil of 35 and 44.7 million tonnes respectively. This projection pushed global prices downward in the same timeline.  

As such, the dates below explore the current calendar year’s pricing: most highs reflect deficit forecasts and lows surplus predictions: 

May 31, 2024: raw sugar sells at US¢18.244 per pound in futures markets. 

June 2, 2024: the commodity hits US¢20.557 a pound.

June 16-September 17, 2024: sugar stays below US¢19 a pound.

September 23, 2024: raw sugar reaches a 2024-25 high of US¢23.617 a pound.

January 21, 2025: the price of sugar dips to a yearly low of US¢17.678 per pound. 

February 25, 2025: the commodity momentarily hits a 2025 high so far, at US¢21.395 per pound.

March 1-May 27, 2025: raw sugar stays below US¢19 to date despite hitting US¢19.99 on March 17 and 18.