India looks onto record wheat production thanks to a wet monsoon that favored grain formation, despite recent weather vagaries. 

Official estimates for the outgoing 2024-25 marketing season (April 2024 to March 2025) are at 15.3 million tonnes, the highest ever.

In contrast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on April 2, 2025 forecast the 2024-25 harvest at 113.3 million tonnes.  The foreign agency also projected the current 2025-26 crop to reach 15 million tonnes.

Despite these high production prospects, the removal of a trade-inhibiting 40% tax for importing wheat from India remains uncertain. 

Scrapping this duty and ending a wheat export ban that has been running since 2022 could ameliorate currently robust global wheat prices.

Wheat Procurement Timeline

Wheat in India grows during Rabi (autumn) after sowing in October, with the harvest in the followup February-May period. 

Procurements of the crop from farmers by both the government and traders takes place  April through June.  

The procured crop at the end of one harvest becomes the reserve for the next marketing year. Thus the current harvest will be the reserve for the ongoing 2025-26 marketing year, which started in April 2025.  

Ending April 2, 2025, the central government had domestically sourced 2 million tonnes of the grain at the minimum support price (MSP). 

By May 19, the state’s Food Corp had ramped up purchases to 29.6 million tonnes, 14% higher, year-on-year. 

Governmental purchases for 2025-26 could amount to 32.5 million tonnes, above the 18.4 million tonnes of 2024-25.  

Purchases by independent traders have also spurred sales in wheat mandi (wholesale markets) to 3.8 million tonnes before April 2, 2025.

Procurement states include Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh in the north, and Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west. 

All these developments illustrate India’s commitment to meeting self-sufficiency and lowering food inflation before allowing any exports. For the bigger picture, peruse below statistics on wheat production in India. 

India Wheat Production Statistics 

India has enjoyed an enviable run in wheat production in the past 6 decades, ending 2024. From maiden production at 10.3 million tonnes in 1960, the output had grown tenfold to 113.292 million tonnes in 2024. According to the government, the 2025 harvest would be the highest this far, at a 115.3 million-tonne estimate.

Has India’s wheat production growth been consistent in 6 decades? 

In the foregoing 64 years ending 2024, India’s wheat production has shown annual negative growth only 17 times. This means that the yearly output has enjoyed relative stability, with a setback every 1 in 4 years. The period’s highest production growth took place in 1968 at 45.18% while the lowest in 1966 at -15.21%.

Is wheat msp tied to production costs in India?

In February 2025, the government raised the wheat Minimum Support Price (MSP) to 2,425 rupees ($2,830) a quintal. A 6.59% rise year-on-year, the increase reflected rising production costs, land rental rates and others. In a snapshot, India’s government pays a wheat MSP based on input, labor and rental costs and adds 50% kickback.