Arabica coffee futures in New York on early April 23, 2025 rose to a 2 1/2-week high adrift a strengthening Brazil’s currency.
Nasdaq reports that Arabica beans for May and July deliveries notched 2.96% and 3.22% respectively on the 23rd in daily advances.
Meanwhile, Robusta at the International Coffee Exchange (ICE) futures benchmark retreated because it does not depend on Brazil’s currency.
Whenever the real gains against the dollar, exporters of Arabica in Brazil hold back to avoid low local cash conversions.
This reprises the harvest time scenario in July 2024 when the real had strengthened and rescued the time’s rock bottom prices.
Enter Production Dip
But currencies are not the only factors buoying Arabica prices, for a recent production dip prediction is weighing in, too.
On April 22, 2025, Racobank estimated Brazil’s 2025-26 Arabica crop at 38.1 million bags, down -13.6% year-on-year (y-o-y).
Racobank also helped pressure Robusta prices after forecasting the 2025-26 domestic Robusta crop at 24.7 million bags, 7.3% up y-o-y.
Analysts think this cheaper coffee variety’s production gains might not impact much the current rally in Arabica.
Indeed, by the 24th at 05:50 AM EST, Arabica futures were still up by 1.39% day-on-day, to $3.86 a pound.
The gain however is below the year’s current high of $4 a pound, recorded in early February 2025.
Thus, a smaller upcoming harvest in Brazil in combination with a strong real is making Arabica bullish. For more on how this popular coffee variety has performed in similar situations in the past week, skim the statistics below.
Statistics on Arabica Coffee Amid Strong Brazil Currency
While a weak real orientates coffee prices downward, a strong currency on the other hand pushes the rates up. This increase is usually due to artificial shortage that reluctant exporters occasion when the local currency is strong. Of course other factors, such as production in other countries, also affect coffee prices. The focus below however is solely on the Brazil’s real effect on prices from April 17 to 24, 2025.
April 17: with the exchange rate at 5.8063 against 1 dollar, the real was stronger than the previous day’s 5.86. This helped buoy Arabica prices to $3.763 a pound on the 17th.
Apr 18: Arabica prices gained slightly to $3.768 a pound, even as the currency stayed put at 5.8063 against the dollar.
Apr 21: the exchange rate slightly weakened to 5.8067 against the dollar, pushing down the price to $3.669 a pound.
April 22: the currency strengthened to 5.7250 against the dollar on the 22nd, rallying Arabica futures to $3.792 a pound.
April 24: at the current rate of 5.70 against the dollar on the 24th, the real has strengthened by 9 cents. This strength has in turn pushed the Arabica coffee market rate to $3.86 a pound.