Despite a looming export ban of live sheep by sea and an upcoming anti-ban protest, Australia is predicting surging shipments.
The Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) predicted in mid-March 2025 of a 25% increase in yearly shipments for 2025 over 2024’s.
MLA expects shipments to hit 542,000 head in 2025 and then 550,000 in 2026, up from 433,078 head in 2024.
The authority also forecasts shipments in 2027 to soar to 600,000 head, just a year before the actualization of the sea ban.
These improvements owe to the removal of supply chain impediments that derailed 2024 trade, including the then high domestic slaughter rates.
Notably, the estimates are still 11 times lower than the historical high of 1988 when exports hit 7.1 million head.
The MLA forecast essentially counters a downward rival estimate by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. Earlier in March, the bureau had forecast 2025-26 exports to fall 40% year-on-year, to 328,000 units.
Oncoming Protest
But this won’t stop an oncoming anti-ban farmers’ protest in Perth in the Western Australia state on March 28, 2025.
Organizers tout that the participation of thousands will send a pacifist message to the government against its phaseout plan.
The event will reprise a similar street convoy exactly a year ago that had featured 1,700 automobiles and 3,000 protesters.
Ban Timeline
Australia legislated to phase out live sheep conveyance by sea on July 10, 2024, after which a transition period began.
One of the transitions is a grant program for farmers and businesses in the export value chain on December 19, 2024.
Alongside the transition, there is also a “transition assistance” kitty for affected farmers and other stakeholders worth A$137.9 million ($87 million).
The final date of sea-bound dispatches will happen on May 1, 2028, four years after the legislation.
Whether or not post-2028 live sheep export by air will maintain current volumes has not yet generated enough analysis to quote. All the same, below statistics find out the yearly exports by current sea and air means combined.
Australia Live Sheep Export Statistics
Australia is one of the three top sheep-rearing nations by stock number, which also makes it a top exporter. In 2022 and 2023, the country had a sheep population of 70,234,655 and 72,102,519 head, respectively, according to FAOSTAT. A year earlier in 2021, live sheep exports amounted to 567,856 animals, the 6th highest worldwide, according to the World Bank.
How have Aussie sheep exports performed historically?
Based on graphical data by Parliament Australia, live sheep dispatches by Australia have fallen 7 times over between 1988 and 2018. While 1988 reached a historic high of 7,301,300 head, 2018 managed only 1,214,500 head. In the 2020s, the shipments have been in the half-a-million head average, culminating in 2024’s below average 433,078 head.
Which are the top destinations of Australia’s sheep/goat exports?
Australia exports a combined sheep/goat total of US$80.8 million, as of 2023. Top markets are all in the Middle East, alongside China. In 2023, Israel topped imports at US$21.2 million, while Kuwait (US$17.9 million) and Jordan (US$14.8 million) rounded up the top 3.