Agriculture Canada has in February added 0.5 million tonnes to its monthly estimate of the 2024-25 canola ending stock.

The raise over the foregoing January estimate puts the ending reserve at 1.3 million tonnes or half 2023-24’s 2.75 million tonnes.

This means that the 2024-25 stock might go down to the wire as the tightest in the past 12 years. 

The upward revision owes to uptick import estimates at 150,000 tonnes, up from the 100,000-tonne estimate in January.

Exports Downward

Meanwhile, canola exports could reach 7.5 million tonnes out of a crush total of 11.5 million tonnes this season.

As a major supplier of rapeseed worldwide, the country shipped 8.635 million tonnes of canola seed in 2024. 

One key destination, the U.S., hangs in the balance due to pending tariffs slated for March 4, 2025.  

Tariff Potential Spurs Prices

Domestic prices of rapeseed in Canada are anticipating the looming tariff heat by working upward. 

On February 19, leading contractual May deliveries at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) notched to C$680 ($478.3) a tonne, reports Morning Star.

The last time a contract had breached this price floor was on November 13, 2024, which indicates market pressure.

Analysts attribute this price appreciation to the tariff shadow, which has sparked purchases to buffer against future market swings. 

Agriculture Canada has forecast the current season’s price at C$670 ($471.3) a tonne, up by C$35 ($24.6) from the January forecast.

Like the ending stock, the price estimate is lower than the 2023-24 average of C$715 ($502.93) a tonne. 

Finally, production of canola in 2025 might reach 17.5 million tonnes, a 2% downturn year-on-year. To appreciate what this means for trade, below are statistics on Canada’s canola exports, e.t.c.

Canola Statistics by Agriculture Canada 

Canola is one of the top oilseeds in Canada, the others being cotton, flaxseed and soybeans. The country ranks third worldwide in production after the EU and China, as of 2022, but leads in canola products’ trade. In its January 20, 2025 estimate, Ag Canada put production in the 2025-26 year at 17,500,000 tonnes (t). This is vis-á-vis 2024-25 year’s estimate of 17,845,000 t and 2023-24’s 19,192,000 t. However, these estimates keep changing each passing month but with no drastic change.

How is  canola acreage in Canada up to 2026?

In January 2025, Agriculture Canada put the canola seeded area at 8,500,000 hectares (ha) while the harvest area was at 8,421,000 hectares. The seeded area in the 2024-25 season remains 8,908,000 ha while that of the 2023-24 period was 8,938,000 ha. The yield rate is up in the 2025-26 season at 2.08 t/ha, above 2024-25’s 2.02 t/ha but below 2023-24’s 2.17 t/ha. 

Is Canada the biggest canola exporter? 

Canada is the largest exporter of canola seed although it also exports canola oil and canola meal. According to the Canola Council of Canada, the country exported 8,635,682 tonnes (t) of canola seed in 2024. Top destinations included China (5,863,793 t), Japan (981,239 t), Mexico (599,689 t) the UAE (349,281 t) and the U.S. (277,517 t).