Cacao beans and their derivatives won’t spare candy lovers this love weekend. Analysts predict even higher prices to come than current, a bad timing for Valentine’s Day gifts.

From just $2,000 a tonne in 2022 to over $10,000 in February 2025, raw cocoa is increasingly making love giveaways expensive. 

According to AP, in Belgium where notable candy makers operate, factories are scouring for a scarce raw material.

Oxfarm fair trade group reports from Bruges that its 280 companies in Belgium are coping with supply lows.

The same situation is pertinent to other world markets, especially North America. As of February 11, 2025, U.S.’ cocoa bean futures had stayed put at $10,106 per tonne, according to Trading Economics. 

The figure notably rivals recent records of nearly $12,000 a tonne on December 17, 2024 and $11,710 on January 31, 2025.

400% Price Spike from Weather 

Meanwhile, the production capitals of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which provide 58% of world cocoa have lately seen sporadic rainfall. 

Additionally, Nigeria and Cameroon are also experiencing dry winds which could reverse earlier hopes of good weather. 

For this reason, Christian Aid cites that extended dry spells, irregular saturation and disease have helped up cocoa prices by 400%. 

The shortage in West Africa first exacerbated in 2023 when surprise torrential rain splashed over Ghana’s dry season timing. Instead of reviving the crop, it brought destructive black pod fungus on the beans.

Côte d’Ivoire meanwhile experienced a disease- and weather-related deficit of 100,000 tonnes in the October-March 2024 harvest period. 

Valentine’s Cacao derivatives 20% Up

Weather aside, the immediate concern is whether customers will afford costly chocolates during the love weekend. 

In the U.S., the popular Valentine’s heart from Lindt weighing 5.7 ounces now costs $21.99, after a cost-related price spike.

While most American chocolate bars are 20% pricier than in February 2024, not all are inaccessible. According to CNN, a Hershey’s 1-pound candy bar costs $14.99 since its maker processes it from cheaper past imports.  

So, cacao beans seem to have denied St. Valentine his claim to cheap things the world over this February. Below statistics extend the debate by comparing cacao prices each Valentine, going back nearly three decades.

Historical  Valentine Cacao Beans Price Statistics

Below are decade-by-decade price of cacao highlights each Valentine from 2025 backward to 1990.

2025: on February 12, the U.S.’ futures price of cacao beans had risen to $10 440 per tonne, according to Investing. 

2024: the average February 2024 price was $5,640 per tonne, according to the Federal Reserve Bank, St.Louis. This is, arguably, half the February 2025 price.

2015: the February average was as little as $2,961 a tonne but would hover at over $3,000 a tonne, thereafter.

2005: while cheap at  $1,633 per tonne, the February 2005 price was nevertheless higher than in a decade earlier. 

1995:  it was slightly more affordable to buy cacao beans in February 1995 at $1,510 than a decade later in 2005.

1190: cocoa cost only $1,022 per tonne in February 1990, while it is over $10 K a tonne in February 2025. Therefore, it was 10 times cheaper in 1990 than in early 2025.