Arabica coffee futures in New York touched a historic $4 per pound on February 5, 2025, amid predictions of oncoming price relief.
This highest price ever beat the November 2024 record of $3.3545 a pound, which in turn had eclipsed a 1977 record.
The commodity’s prices rose and fell twice on the 5th after they’d first edged 4.6% day-on-day into the record. Later that same day, prices settled lower before they rose again 3.8% above those of the foregoing session, to $3.8775 a pound.
Brazil’s Slump
The upward price movement of the commodity mirrors downward production in Arabica capitals such as Brazil.
Extended droughts and surprise frost have overseen a harvest slump in Brazil, the provider of 40% of world coffee.
Estimates by Safras Mercado for the 2025-26 season put the country’s annual production down by 5% to 62.45 million bags.
February Supply Rally
Weather aside, supply chains under monitoring by futures markets indicate rising arrivals at warehouses, attracted by current top dollar prices.
This shows that some coffee inventories are holding reserves till prices improve and therefore does not indicate full supply recovery.
Nevertheless, there are expectations of a February supply rally due to new harvests, which could cool prices by 25 to 30%.
Markets currently processing harvests include Kenya, whose peak harvest occurs between November and January.
Latin American nations from Cost Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico to Nicaragua all harvest between October and April.
Vietnam, the producer of 20% of world’s coffee is also currently picking its October-March Robusta beans. Production is apparently rallying after poor 2024-25 pickings and doubling of local Robusta prices in a year.
All harvest zones however are still subject to weather swings, and their supplies may not immediately cover the market deficit.
So, with new harvests underway, the world still has time to see coffee volatility depreciate by latest March 2025. To extend the harvest topic further, skim the statistics below.
Global Coffee Harvest Statistics
Next is the harvest calendar of a few key coffee-producing nations, with data courtesy of List + Beisler. Notably, some parts within a given country may produce coffee at different times from those on the list:
| Country | Main Harvest |
| Kenya | Oct-Jan |
| Uganda | Sep-Apr (Arabica); Nov-Mar (Robusta) |
| Ethiopia | Oct-Jan |
| Brazil | May-Sep |
| Colombia | Sep-Dec |
| Peru | Apr-Jun |
| Honduras | Oct-Apr |
| Vietnam | Oct-Mar (Robusta) |
| Indonesia | Jun-Sep (Arabica & Robusta) |
Each of the above countries is among the 25 biggest coffee producers in the world, as of 2019. That year, Brazil led production at 3 million tonnes while Vietnam followed with 1.7 million tonnes. Colombia at 885,100 tonnes, Indonesia at 76,000 tonnes and Ethiopia at 761,000 tonnes rounded up the top 5 nations.
In 2019, Honduras was the sixth biggest producer at 476,300 tonnes, followed by Peru at 363,300 tonnes. India and Uganda rounded up the top 10 at 319,500 and 254,100 tonnes, respectively. Kenya, famed for its rich aroma coffee, was position 22, with 44, 500 tonnes.