Cocoa pricing has neared the April 2024 apex by recording a new high of $11,938 a tonne in New York futures. 

The new record on December 17, at 7.10 a.m. Eastern Time follows renewed uncertainty on the West African crop outlook.

Even though by end December 17 the top futures price had ameliorated to  $11,765 a tonne, it was still overboard.

In October through November, most market prices had retreated to between the $7,000s and $9,000s per tonne. However, they were still three times higher than those of the corresponding October-November 2023 period. 

This makes 2024 the volatility champ for the popular commodity. Indeed, since March 27 when the beans breached the $10,000-per-tonne mark, they have overshadowed the previous 1977 record.

Ivory Coast Harvest

According to the Wallstreet Journal, Ivory Coast has reported a 33% surge in harvest arrivals at ports year-on-year. But fear is growing on the possible weather changes that could parallel last year’s.

The fear is in the shape of Harmarttan winds, which normally occur between December and February during the first harvest. 

These winds usually bring dry currents from the western coast and effectively dry up the adjacent land. In 2023, they accounted for much of the dryness that later occasioned a deficit in harvest across Ghana and Ivory Coast.

Ghana and Ivory Coast are important cocoa backyards for they produce over 70% of the world’s reserves.

Ghana’s Mahama

There is a ray of hope however because Ghana’s new returnee-president elect, Mahama, promises sector reforms.

Mahama, who will be taking back office on January 7, 2025, has hinted to improve non-tax revenue for cocoa farmers.

His promises come at a time when an embattled Cocoa Board of Ghana (COCOBOD) is slowly bowing to pressure. Its most recent positive gesture was increasing farm gate prices to 48,000 cedi ($3,062) per tonne for the 2024-25 season.

Effect on Cocoa Pricing 

But this positive outlook in Ghana is hardly bearing on futures, whose contraction is happening by less than 1%.

For instance on December 17, leading contracts in New York only reduced from $11.938 to $11,864 a tonne . This was in the space of an hour between 7.10 and 8.20 a.m, Eastern Time.

So, despite a revamp in early season supplies in West Africa, cocoa prices are still susceptible to surprise shocks. To continue this conversation further, below are statistics on how surprise volatility has impacted prices in the recent past.

2023-24 Cocoa Pricing Volatility Statistics 

In the past 24 months between January 2023 and December 2024, international cocoa prices have more than tripled. At the same time, there were notable times that were more volatile than the rest, especially in the U.S.’ futures markets. The following statistics from Investing and other sources highlight these volatile moments:

After a long stability through much of 2023, cocoa prices posted their first notable surge on November 1, 2023 at $4,475 a tonne. This was above the $3,817 a tonne posting of October 2. A month later, the futures price would retreat a little to $4,277 a tonne. Supply woes in West Africa was the key reason for the surge.

The first very significant surge during this 2-year period took place on February 1, 2024. This time round, the beans’ prices increased by 50%, to $6,049 a tonne. 

On March 1, 2024, the price more than doubled from the January equivalent, to $9,766 a tonne. But it would take April 15 to breach the $10-K mark at $10,760 a tonne. 

Since then, the price fluctuated between $6,991 on July 1, 2024 and a high of $11,838 on December 17.