World’s coffee prices rally on insufficient supplies

World’s coffee prices rally on insufficient supplies

Global coffee prices improved week-on-week on May 20, 2024 on falling supplies due to low rain in Brazil and Vietnam.

The futures markets registered a top price of $2.09 per pound against $2.08 a pound in the foregoing week. 

A week earlier on May 6, prices had hit $2.04 per pound from April highs, but spiked by 1.96% on May 13.

The price looks like marching back to its highest mark since July 2023 of $2.41 a pound on April 15, 2024. This followed shortage in most source countries, despite Vietnam’s lush Robusta bean exports at the beginning of 2024. 

Now, however, looming shortage in Brazil and Vietnam is already proving bullish on prices due to lack of rain.

For one, southeast Brazil’s Minas Gerais coffee belt had not seen a millimeter of rain for a month by May 20, 2024. 

Rain-caused shortage in Minas Gerais can spur global price swings because the area provides 30% of Brazil’s Arabica beans.

On top of that, Brazil’s real currency has strengthened against the dollar this week, and discouraged exports. A strong real means low local currency returns for exporters in the international trade system based on exchange rates. 

A week beforehand, on May 14, Brazil had reported a year-on-year surge by 61% in coffee exports. Since then, weather-related factors have cut exports amid the global price appreciation.

Also buoying strong coffee prices is shortage of coffee beans in Vietnam. This is despite the country recording 56.4% upward exports in quarter 1, 2024 ending April 15.

Reasons for low supplies in Asia’s coffee capital is upshot real estate rates, which have discouraged farmers from renting land.

Secondly, like in Brazil, rainfall in the central highlands of Vietnam decreased by 41% between May 1 and 10, 2024.  

Vietnam’s central coffee belt usually commands over 250 mm in early May but this year it received only 195.6 mm.

World Coffee Statistics

Which is the world’s biggest producer of Robusta beans? Vietnam, with 40% of the world’s total or 30.23 million 60 kg bags in 2023. Which are the six biggest coffee producing nations? In 2019, Brazil topped production at 49.3 million 60 kg bags. Vietnam followed with 27.5 million 60 kg bags, with Columbia third at 13.5 million 60 kg bags. Closing the ranks were Indonesia (11 million bags), Honduras (9.6 million bags) and Ethiopia (6.4 million bags). 

What is the highest per capita consumption of coffee globally?  The highest per capita consumption of coffee in 2016 was 12 kg per year in Finland. Where in the world do people drink most coffee per person? Due to long winters which encourage hot beverage intake, Scandinavian countries average between 8.2 and 12 kg per person yearly. Which country consumes most coffee? The United States. Despite having a coffee per capita of just 4.4 kg, the U.S. consumed most coffee in 2021 at 26.98 million 60 kg bags.