The average weights of U.S. beef cattle have improved but prices in April 2024 have increased by 5%, year-on-year.

An April 17, 2024 report by the Economic Research Service (ERS) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows a month-on-month gain of 1.09% in farm gate prices.

The fed cattle price reached $185 per hundredweight ($45.4 kg) in April, a unit increase of $2 from the March 2024 price.

Driving this price surge is a depreciation in cattle numbers and expanding beef product exports, hence diminishing local supplies. In February 2024, fresh/frozen beef exports from the U.S. notched up to 244 million pounds, 3% more than February 2023’s. This preempted USDA to raise the total beef export estimates for quarter 1, 2024 by 20 million pounds above earlier estimates.

Despite this improvement in exports, beef production in 2024 will remain 2% below the 2023 output, per ERS-USDA forecast.

Retail Price Up

Retail prices of beef in April 2024 also reflect the situation at the farm gate. While a grass fed cow is costing an average $185 per hundredweight ($1.85 per pound), a filet mignon is $27.78 a pound.  

The next ERS-USDA beef retail price publication in May will show the direction of the consumer price vis-á-vis that of cattle.

USDA forecasts a 0.84% increase in red meat production in 2024, including pork, veal and poultry. This increase in other meat sectors will have a counterbalancing effect on expensive beef as consumers look for cheaper animal protein. 

Hopefully, a recovery of cattle numbers which plunged to extreme levels in end 2023 will push down the beef price. U.S.’ beef production slumped by 180 million pounds between August and December 2023, with a corresponding price hike. However, production actually improved slightly by 130 million pounds in quarter 1, 2024 and if it continues this way prices might cool.