{"id":22133,"date":"2025-03-27T09:49:03","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T09:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/?p=22133"},"modified":"2025-03-27T09:52:18","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T09:52:18","slug":"citrus-south-africa-estimates-even-exports-for-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/03\/27\/citrus-south-africa-estimates-even-exports-for-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Citrus South Africa estimates even exports for 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Steady shipments with neither oversupply nor undersupply define 2025\u2019s citrus campaign in South Africa, forecasts the Citrus Growers of Southern Africa (CGA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth in navel and Valencia orange volumes will buoy exports despite a 5% yearly retraction in lemons, the industry forecasts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the CGA chairman Gerrit van der Merwe, the volume break even will enable the sector meet traditional global demand.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the mixed tally, navels, some mandarins and grapefruit shipments will rally by 5-6% year-on-year and counter the lemon decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.infoagro.com\/noticias\/2025\/los_productores_sudafricanos_de_citricos_estiman_estabilidad_en_la_exp.asp\"><u>The outlook suggests&#8230;.no oversupply or shortage<\/u><\/a>,\u201d stated Van der Merwe, hailing the 2025 crop as mirroring recent traditional exports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The earliest crop, lemons, currently already reaching Eurasia markets will shed export volume by 5%, to 32.9 million 15-kg cartons. Lowered production across Sundays River Valley in Eastern Cape and some Senwes group\u2019s groves will contribute to the dip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Valencia oranges will notably earn a comeback from successive failures by 6% export growth, to 52 million 15-kg boxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is not yet clear how the upshot volumes will affect\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/insights\/prices\/south-africa\/orange-juice\/\">juice pricing<\/a>, given this is a specialty juicing orange. In retrospect, local Valencias sold dearly in 2024 and affected rates of processed products abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-navels-mandarins-grapefruit\"><strong>Navels, Mandarins &amp; Grapefruit<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Navel oranges on the other hand will counter lemon\u2019s derail with 5% export volume growth, to 26.1 million 15-kg boxes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This rally raises the bar over meager 2024 production in Western Cape and Limpopo from&nbsp;<a href=\"#:~:text=The%20Citrus%20Growers%20of%20Southern%20Africa%20%28CGA%29%20have,lemon%20exports%20are%20predicte\"><u>excessive rain and frost<\/u><\/a>, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, the orange industry has for the first time categorized shipments into early\/mid and late navels for better logistical tracking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also rallying is grapefruit, by 6% in shipment volume year-on-year, to 13.5 million 17-kg boxes.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At flat growth will be satsuma, which according to CGA will retain 2024 volumes at 1.8 million 15-kg consignments.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2032-projections\"><strong>2032 Projections<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>After the balanced estimates above, the focus shifts to boosting the sector\u2019s sales towards 260 million cartons by 2032.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are also hopes that the industry will add 100,000 jobs over the current 140,000 in the next 7 years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before that however, citrus South Africa will have to surmount strict European Union (EU)\u2019s regulations, particularly on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2023\/08\/17\/deon-joubert-south-africa-must-declare-a-dispute-on-cbs-at-the-wto-immediately\/\"><u>citrus black spot<\/u><\/a>&nbsp;(CBS). The fungus apparently costs the sector about 3.7 billion Rand ($202.9 million) per season. &nbsp;And as the statistics below show, this is no slight figure in the context of the overall export revenue by the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-south-africa-citrus-export-statistics\"><strong>South Africa Citrus Export Statistics&nbsp;<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa\u2019s citrus exports rank as the world\u2019s number 2 by trade value worth&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/oec.world\/en\/profile\/bilateral-product\/citrus\/reporter\/zaf\"><u>$2.43 billion<\/u><\/a>, as of 2023. As the 11<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;biggest national export, citrus shipments are no small fete for an industrialized nation. Two key destinations, namely the Netherlands ($450 million) and the UK ($205 million), claim 1\/3<sup>rd<\/sup>&nbsp;of all export revenue, as of 2023. This brings into focus the fact that the European Union is the biggest trading partner that claims&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/south-african-citrus-new-eu-rules-are-unjust-and-punitive-188387\"><u>41%<\/u><\/a>&nbsp;of all shipments (2021).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What are the pros and cons of the EU market for South Africa\u2019s citrus<\/strong>?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU market brings in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailymaverick.co.za\/article\/2024-04-16-sa-the-worlds-no-2-citrus-exporter-challenges-eu-on-restrictions\/\"><u>$644 million<\/u><\/a>&nbsp;each year from oranges, lemons, mandarins and grapefruit (2023). But since 2022, this revenue has been coming at a cost due to stringent regulations on false codling moth (FCM) and citrus black spot (CBS). Beginning 2022, these regulations have been costing exporters nearly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailymaverick.co.za\/opinionista\/2024-07-08-excessive-new-eu-regulations-threaten-sas-citrus-export-industry-cases-taken-to-the-world-trade-organisation\/\"><u>4 billion Rand<\/u><\/a>&nbsp;($219.36 million) a year. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What is the portion of regulation costs versus SA<\/strong><strong>\u2019s<\/strong><strong>&nbsp;citrus export revenue?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Direct CBS and FCM costs alone amount to roughly $219.36 a year. On top of this are unaccounted logistics that some studies put at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.infoagro.com\/noticias\/2025\/los_productores_sudafricanos_de_citricos_estiman_estabilidad_en_la_exp.asp\"><u>5.27 billion Rand<\/u><\/a>&nbsp;($289 million), annually. Both aggregated costs amount to approximately 1\/5<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;of the total citrus export value of $2.89 million (2021) by South Africa worldwide.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Steady shipments with neither oversupply nor undersupply define 2025\u2019s citrus campaign in South Africa, forecasts the Citrus Growers of Southern Africa (CGA). Growth in navel and Valencia orange volumes will buoy exports despite a 5% yearly retraction in lemons, the industry forecasts.&nbsp; According to the CGA chairman Gerrit van der Merwe, the volume break even&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":20118,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v16.3 (Yoast SEO v20.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Citrus South Africa estimates even exports for 2025 - Selina Wamucii | Food &amp; Agriculture News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/03\/27\/citrus-south-africa-estimates-even-exports-for-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Citrus South Africa estimates even exports for 2025 - Selina Wamucii | Food &amp; Agriculture News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Steady shipments with neither oversupply nor undersupply define 2025\u2019s citrus campaign in South Africa, forecasts the Citrus Growers of Southern Africa (CGA). 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