{"id":21914,"date":"2025-02-20T13:31:12","date_gmt":"2025-02-20T13:31:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/?p=21914"},"modified":"2025-02-20T13:36:08","modified_gmt":"2025-02-20T13:36:08","slug":"agriculture-canada-ups-canola-ending-stock-by-500k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/02\/20\/agriculture-canada-ups-canola-ending-stock-by-500k\/","title":{"rendered":"Agriculture Canada ups canola ending stock by 500k t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Agriculture Canada has in February added 0.5 million tonnes to its monthly estimate of the 2024-25 canola ending stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The raise over the foregoing January estimate puts the ending reserve at 1.3 million tonnes or half 2023-24\u2019s 2.75 million tonnes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that the 2024-25 stock might go down to the wire as the tightest in the past 12 years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upward revision owes to uptick import estimates at 150,000 tonnes, up from the 100,000-tonne estimate in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-exports-downward\"><strong>Exports Downward<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, canola exports could reach 7.5 million tonnes out of a crush total of 11.5 million tonnes this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a major supplier of rapeseed worldwide, the country shipped&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canolacouncil.org\/markets-stats\/exports\/\"><u>8.635 million tonnes&nbsp;<\/u><\/a>of canola seed in 2024.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One key destination, the U.S., hangs in the balance due to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/02\/06\/tariff-ensemble-comes-for-canada-mexico-china\/\"><u>pending tariffs&nbsp;<\/u><\/a>slated for March 4, 2025. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tariff-potential-spurs-prices\"><strong>Tariff Potential Spurs Prices<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Domestic<a href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/insights\/prices\/canada\/rapeseeds-canola\/#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20price%20of%20rapeseeds%20%28canola%29%20per,today%27s%20exact%20prices%20of%20rapeseeds%20%28canola%29%20in%20Canada\">\u00a0<u>prices of rapeseed in Canada<\/u>\u00a0<\/a>are anticipating the looming tariff heat by working upward.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On February 19, leading contractual May deliveries at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) notched to C$680 ($478.3) a tonne, reports&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.morningstar.com\/news\/dow-jones\/2025021912782\/ice-canada-weekly-outlook-canola-rising-despite-tariff-threats-stronger-loonie\"><u>Morning Star<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The last time a contract had breached this price floor was on November 13, 2024, which indicates market pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts attribute this price appreciation to the tariff shadow, which has sparked purchases to buffer against future market swings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Agriculture Canada has forecast the current season\u2019s price at C$670 ($471.3) a tonne, up by C$35 ($24.6) from the January forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like the ending stock, the price estimate is lower than the 2023-24 average of C$715 ($502.93) a tonne.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, production of canola in 2025 might reach 17.5 million tonnes, a 2% downturn year-on-year. To appreciate what this means for trade, below are statistics on Canada\u2019s canola exports, e.t.c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canola-statistics-by-agriculture-canada\"><strong>Canola Statistics by Agriculture Canada&nbsp;<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Canola is one of the top oilseeds in Canada, the others being cotton, flaxseed and soybeans. The country ranks\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.isquareintelligence.com\/guides\/Canola-Major-Production-Exporting-and-Consumption-Countries\"><u>third worldwide<\/u><\/a>\u00a0in production after the EU and China, as of 2022, but leads in canola products\u2019 trade. In its January 20, 2025 estimate,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agriculture.canada.ca\/en\/sector\/crops\/reports-statistics\/canada-outlook-principal-field-crops-2025-01-20\"><u>Ag Canada\u00a0<\/u><\/a>put production in the 2025-26 year at 17,500,000 tonnes (t). This is vis-\u00e1-vis 2024-25 year\u2019s estimate of 17,845,000 t and 2023-24\u2019s 19,192,000 t. However, these estimates keep changing each passing month but with no drastic change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How is &nbsp;canola acreage in Canada up to 2026<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In January 2025, Agriculture Canada put the canola seeded area at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/agriculture.canada.ca\/en\/sector\/crops\/reports-statistics\/canada-outlook-principal-field-crops-2025-01-20\"><u>8,500,000 hectares<\/u><\/a>\u00a0(ha) while the harvest area was at 8,421,000 hectares. The seeded area in the 2024-25 season remains 8,908,000 ha while that of the 2023-24 period was 8,938,000 ha. The yield rate is up in the 2025-26 season at 2.08 t\/ha, above 2024-25\u2019s 2.02 t\/ha but below 2023-24\u2019s 2.17 t\/ha.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Is Canada the biggest canola exporter<\/strong>?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada is the largest exporter of canola seed although it also exports canola oil and canola meal. According to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canolacouncil.org\/markets-stats\/exports\/\"><u>Canola Council of Canada<\/u><\/a>, the country exported 8,635,682 tonnes (t) of canola seed in 2024. Top destinations included China (5,863,793 t), Japan (981,239 t), Mexico (599,689 t) the UAE (349,281 t) and the U.S. (277,517 t).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Agriculture Canada has in February added 0.5 million tonnes to its monthly estimate of the 2024-25 canola ending stock. The raise over the foregoing January estimate puts the ending reserve at 1.3 million tonnes or half 2023-24\u2019s 2.75 million tonnes. This means that the 2024-25 stock might go down to the wire as the tightest&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":21915,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v16.3 (Yoast SEO v20.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Agriculture Canada ups canola ending stock by 500k t - Selina Wamucii | Food &amp; Agriculture News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/02\/20\/agriculture-canada-ups-canola-ending-stock-by-500k\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Agriculture Canada ups canola ending stock by 500k t - Selina Wamucii | Food &amp; Agriculture News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Agriculture Canada has in February added 0.5 million tonnes to its monthly estimate of the 2024-25 canola ending stock. 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