{"id":21722,"date":"2025-01-17T13:34:08","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T13:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/?p=21722"},"modified":"2025-01-17T13:41:45","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T13:41:45","slug":"corn-and-soy-turn-slightly-bullish-a-week-after-wasde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/01\/17\/corn-and-soy-turn-slightly-bullish-a-week-after-wasde\/","title":{"rendered":"Corn and soy turn slightly bullish a week after WASDE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

American corn was nearing the $5-a-bushel mark while soy prices were strengthening by mid-January, 2025. This comes a week after <\/u><\/a>January\u2019s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) revised grain supplies downward. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The January 10 WASDE estimated domestic ending stocks of corn at 1.54 billion bushels, with production\u00a0456 million bushels down<\/u><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, by the 17th <\/sup> the grain had gained at least \u00a219 or 4.75% and is marching on to the bullish $5 a bushel territory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corn remains strong despite losing by a few cents<\/u><\/a> on January 16 at Chicago due to South American production gains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)\u2019s March 2025 delivery corn recovered on the 17th<\/sup> to $4.7725<\/u><\/a> a bushel, 2.75% up, day-on-day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier on January 14, corn had made away with $4.79-3\/4 a bushel, a one-year high for March deliveries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cKing corn,\u201d as some economists nickname it due to its market resilience, is however still in neutral territory. The grain could see better days as it is still 21 cents shy of the $5.00 psychological point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Soy Mirrors Corn<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Soybeans, too, have also a long way before they reach the November 21, 2024 high of around $13.67 a bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, they are still in bullish territory since rising dramatically after WASDE downgraded domestic production.  Federal production of the oilseed degraded to 4.37 billion bushels, a 95 million-bushel drop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By January 17, 2025, CBOT soy for March delivery had notched up 0.49% day-on-day, to $10.24 a bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wheat<\/strong> <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For wheat, it has been all neutrality since the report raised ending stocks by only 3 million bushels, to 798 million bushels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is why wheat has been lacklustre despite spring deliveries edging up to $5.3925 at CBOT as of January 17.  The figure, though impressive, is still in the territory of contract lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is therefore interesting how a report can have such an influence on American corn prices <\/u><\/a>and other commodities. But how soon can corn and soy surpass their magical $5 and $11 <\/u><\/a>per bushel apexes, respectively? The data below shows how accurately one can predict such happenings through WASDE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Corn Post-WASDE Performance Statistics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although WASDE is not always accurate, it is more reliable than other sources, per the data below. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How accurate has WASDE been on corn prices<\/strong>? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to USDA\u2019s analysis, WASDE price predictions are normally -0.02 to 3.56%<\/u><\/a> more accurate than other forecasts for May-September timelines. But despite being the nearest in accuracy, WASDE\u2019s predictions can be up to 22.60%<\/u><\/a> different from the real harvest price.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How accurate has WASDE been on corn production<\/strong>? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard production estimates however, have not been so accurate.  Between 1992 and 2017, USDA\u2019s error of forecast from actual production has been extensive. It has ranged from a difference of 0.02% (near accurate) to 27.42%<\/u><\/a> (total inaccuracy).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the above data in mind, below is historical data of significant price effect on corn from recent WASDEs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

November 2024<\/em>: one of the most significant WASDEs for corn was that of November 2024, which pushed up December delivery prices by 0.9%<\/u><\/a>, to $4.31-3\/4 a bushel in Chicago. Two weeks later on November 21, corn futures had notched to $4.42 a bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

January 2025:<\/em> a week after the January 10, 2025 WASDE, drastic cuts in corn production by 456 million bushels<\/u><\/a> drove prices up by 4.2%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

American corn was nearing the $5-a-bushel mark while soy prices were strengthening by mid-January, 2025. This comes a week after January\u2019s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) revised grain supplies downward.  The January 10 WASDE estimated domestic ending stocks of corn at 1.54 billion bushels, with production\u00a0456 million bushels down. Since then, by the 17th  the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":21723,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nCorn and soy turn slightly bullish a week after WASDE - Selina Wamucii | Food & Agriculture News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.selinawamucii.com\/news\/2025\/01\/17\/corn-and-soy-turn-slightly-bullish-a-week-after-wasde\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Corn and soy turn slightly bullish a week after WASDE - Selina Wamucii | Food & Agriculture News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"American corn was nearing the $5-a-bushel mark while soy prices were strengthening by mid-January, 2025. 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